Raila’s long absence from politics sparks jitters

By JUMA KWAYERA

ODM leader Raila Odinga’s two-month absence from the national political scene has become an opportunity for his rivals to start courting the party’s strongholds.

Raila has taken a two-month sabbatical to the US, which allies say was necessary after the aborted February 28, ODM party elections.

To some leaders in ODM, the often hot and cold politics in the party and in CORD, is informed by a desire for a stock-take and a relook at the political models.

Rangwe MP Martin Ogindo and Homa Bay Senator Otieno Kajwang’, who represent opposed interests in the region, view ongoing realignments as an ideological generational shift and sponsored power grab, respectively. 

Ogindo is of the opinion that the political spectrum that has for 50 years, been homogenous needs to be tempered by new shades of colour.

“This country has had four presidents — three from Central and one from Rift Valley. Does it mean Nyanza has to wait till it gets the presidency to start thinking of development? The political unity of the region needs a relook and see if it is addressing the fundamentals of opposition strongholds,” the Rangwe MP says, explaining the source of anti-Raila movement.

Speaking to The Standard on Saturday, Kajwang’ says the power ‘grab’ that has been in gestation after the last General Election is sponsored by the ruling Jubilee coalition.

“People with deep pockets have infiltrated CORD and ODM in particular. What is being touted as development is diversion of attention from a spirited attempt to render Raila politically irrelevant in Nyanza,” claims Kajwang’. The bickering in ODM, he adds, is part of the quest by the governing elite to saddle the opposition with puppets.

In Raila’s absence, governing Jubilee coalition and members of CORD’s affiliate parties are toughing it out in Nyanza, Western and Coast for a foothold of these regions. The ‘vacuum’ is strategic, allies say.  Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo describes as an opportunity to recharge after an enervating 2013 presidential campaign and to give the country’s political arena a bird’s eye view.

Gumbo says the tactical retreat offers a chance for Raila to understand who is with him in Cord and his party ODM.

In the intervening period, the din for his exit from active politics has been growing louder — whether from the government or opposition, especially after he controversially lost the presidential race twice.

Another close Raila ally who sought anonymity, divulged that his sabbatical was a well worked out strategy to burn out negative energy in the party. “It would have been risky for Raila to be in a party that is controlled by the State remotely,” the ally reveals.

The intensity of the hostility may be underlined by the replacement of Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero as deputy chairman of the Governors’ Council by Salim Mvurya of Kwale, during Thursday’s elections in Naivasha. Dr Kidero admitted when he spoke to the Press that his tribulations had to do with his stand on Nyanza politics, especially his economic template for the region.

The strength of ODM and Raila in the opposition will be put to test if the Supreme Court upholds the nullification of Migori Governor Okoth Obado.

“Let us be realistic. Kalonzo and Wetang’ula are good leaders. But they lack the political networks and ability to mobilise resources to challenge for power. Unless Raila says he is tired, it would be foolhardy to imagine that someone else can assume his mantle and provide alternative leadership comparable to Raila’s,” says Migori County Woman Representative Denittah Ghati.

At present, Ghati insists CORD and ODM still look up to Raila for leadership, unless another leader of his calibre emerges.

A number of youthful politicians have been shopping for an alternative, with some suggesting the former prime minister should return the favour of other communities that have stuck with him by supporting a non-Luo.

It is a situation Mr Ogindo admits Nyanza is alive to. “Nyanza has a lot of debts  — political — to the rest of the country. But leaders emerge, they are not given power. When Nyanza people identify a leader with good quality, we will begin repaying the debts.”

“It sounds ridiculous for somebody to expect Raila to anoint them his successor. He was not given the mantle by anybody. He worked for it. What if he chooses a successor who does not have what it takes to meet people’s expectations. I would be surprised if he did that,” explains Gumbo.

He concedes that the future of most politicians in the opposition depends on how long Raila is active politically, which in turn, means most of them are not willing to let him exit the scene. For those who fear obfuscation, he says, they take pride in hitting at the opposition leader for political mileage.

“A lot of us would find it difficult to get our bearings. There would be a lot of groping in darkness in the same way it happened when Jaramogi Oginga Odinga died,” according to Gumbo.

The unspoken message when CORD discusses Raila’s absence is: Wetang’ula and Kalonzo must demonstrate the mettle for leadership to convince Raila’s followers that they can match and stay powerful in politics.