Africa has visions but Asian Tigers have plans

BY PETER WANYONYI

East Africa is gripped by a vision-launching frenzy. Two or so years ago, Rwanda set the ball rolling with its “Vision 2020”, a ten-year-plan for major economic reforms and sectoral changes which are, it is hoped, going to transform Rwanda into a middle-income country by the year 2020.

Cynicism

Shortly afterwards, Tanzania followed with its Vision 2025, an almost exact copy of Rwanda’s plans, except it adds another five years onto the deadline. As we all know, Kenya then unleashed Vision 2030 — another five years added onto the deadline, the same general plans, the same cynicism by wananchi.

Even impoverished little Burundi was not left out, mucking in with a francophone version of the pipedreams, its version a complete copy of Tanzania’s down to the name: Vision 2025. It turns out that ‘vision’ remains the same when translated into French.

All these visions pale into insignificance, however, when held up against what President Museveni launched in Kampala on April 18. Like a sly fox, Museveni waited for all the other East African countries to launch their big dreams, and then unleashed his.

Vision 2040

And he didn’t go for another five years further than Kenya’s Vision 2030. He added ten, making Ugandans the proud producers and owners of a vision 30 years into the future — Vision 2040.  The document reads like a socialist’s wish list for the gods. Uganda aims to transform itself into a prosperous country within these 30 years, moving per capita income from the current $506 (Sh64,727)  to an ambitious $9,500 (Sh1,215,235).

Nothing in the document indicates how this is to be achieved. The bureaucracy starts right from the vision itself.

These East African visions are, of course, just a form of national daydreaming. Rwanda will almost certainly achieve its vision because such is the determination, probity and capability of President Paul Kagame’s government.

The assumption is that he stays in power until the vision is achieved, for it is generally agreed that as soon as Kagame steps aside, the old wounds that he has papered over in Rwanda’s poisonous ethnic relations will rapidly re-open again.

Stranded

But General Kagame should have no problems changing the constitution so he can continue running Rwanda well past 2025.

Kenya’s Vision 2030 looks good on paper, but will be held back by our usual vices — corruption and tribalism. This is reflected in the Vision 2030 board of directors and management: 50 per cent of its 33-strong board of directors, and 40 per cent of its 12-strong management, are from one community. 

Compare all these pipe dreams with our model Asian countries, Malaysia and Singapore. Their respective economic plans are not grandiose long-term stuff, but rather five-year plans with specific deliverables by sector.

Considering how far advanced they are compared to us, it becomes obvious that the way to judge a development plan or vision is by the time given by the government to achieve it.

Anything beyond ten years is just mind-candy for the masses, a nice set of presentations to convince donors to part with their cash.