End is nigh for Kenya and US's dominance

From time immemorial, the world’s kingdoms have risen and fallen with the regularity of time and tide. The 15th century belonged to the Portuguese with seafarers like Vasco da Gama dominating the world’s oceans.

He was renowned for being the first to sail from Europe to India by rounding Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The 16th century was Spain’s with Christopher Columbus, sailing under the Spanish flag, discovering the New World.

The 17th and 18th were dominated by the Dutch and French respectively while the 19th was Britain’s.

As late as 1935, Britain still proudly maintained that the sun never set on her empire.

After the second world war, America’s dominance of the world was stamped on practically all facets of life. At the time, with just 6 per cent of the world’s population, the United States accounted for half of the global economy.

With a vibrant middle class supported by a functional trade union movement, the US struck the sweet spot between capital and labour that allowed it to have economic dominance for years.

But America has begun to give place to others, especially those from the East. Covid-19 has only laid bare the decline that had been masked by US omnipresence in world affairs.

Though it remains central in the fight against the pandemic, it is not as a leader but as an object of pity, not unlike a third world country.

American deaths have dominated the entire pandemic. A country that once produced fighter planes by the hour could not produce paper masks or cotton swabs essential for tracking the disease.

China, where the pandemic originated from, showed greater presence of mind, and provided leadership on many fronts.

Chinese authorities were quick to impose total lockdowns to bring the pandemic under control. Further, together with philanthropic industrialists, they provided essential personal protective equipment and other medical supplies to the world’s most vulnerable nations.

Kenya appears to mirror America’s decline. The country seems to be tarred with the same dirty brush in many ways.

The illusion of Kenya exceptionalism is now being dispelled by the rise of neighbours so that it seems it no longer has regional ascendancy in economic affairs.

Take for instance Uganda, one of Kenya’s largest trading partners. In 2017/18 FY, Uganda had a trade surplus of Sh12.7 billion with Kenya. It accounted for 70 per cent of nearly half million tonnes of Kenya’s maize imports. Other imports from Uganda are milk, butter, chicken and eggs.

Ten years ago, Kenya's GDP was 50 per cent greater than Ethiopia’s. Today, Ethiopia has surpassed Kenya as the biggest economy in Eastern Africa.

A story is told of how Ethiopia’s PM while visiting Kenya, saw the Konza Technopolis idea and liked it. He replicated the same, calling it Hawassa Industrial Park.

Hawassa now employs 60,000 people with projections to rise to 200,000 in the next two years. Rwanda may soon overtake Kenya as a tourism and conference destination. It has an airline that provides cheap direct access to Kigali from multiple destinations.

There are a number of reasons that have precipitated Kenya’s decline. The government’s clientelist relationship with dodgy businessmen is one.

Extractive capitalists export raw material instead of adding value locally in the form of finished goods. Like America, where the elite 1 per cent control 30 trillion dollars’ worth of assets, less than 4 per cent of Kenyans own or control all of the nation’s assets. Unlike Ethiopia or Rwanda where patriotism is valued, Kenyans have sold concessions to foreigners at throw away prices.

Second is the decimation of the trade union movement. Unlike America which thrived when there was a perfect balance between labour and capital, Kenya’s labour movement has been in perpetual loggerheads with the government. Industrial action has often been met with heavy handed reprisals. Even now when peaceful picketing is sanctioned by law, there have been attempts to subvert this democratic dividend. The Central Organisation of Trade Union’s top leadership appears to be in the thrall of government functionaries. Further, the powerful teachers’ union Knut has been emasculated by having its members deregistered.

The secret of successful nations lies in prescient leadership. Because the Jubilee has not succeeded in threading the needle, it may have cost Kenya its regional ascendancy. But it is not too late to turn around; if only Kenyans depart from the habit of voting against and deliberately vote those who really can make a difference.

-Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst