Here is what BREXIT means for Kenya

January 31, 2020, marked the day the UK left the European Union. There is no doubt in my mind that the decision to leave as a result of the 2016 referendum was a huge mistake. Allegations, now proven, of Russian meddling via Cambridge Analytica probably tipped the balance to allow the Brexit camp to win by a small margin. And guess who is happy with the UK departure from the EU: Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is no friends with anyone but is smiling broadly as Russia succeeds in breaking up old anti-Russian alliances.

Since 2016, the political debate in the UK Houses of Parliament has been dominated by Brexit discussions.

Faced with a weak opposition, where the main party led by Jeremy Corbyn failed to present a coherent view, the Remainers had no real leader around whom to unite. Yet the majority of electors in the 2019 election were in favour of Remain.

If one added the 1.5 million UK citizens who live in the EU but were not allowed to vote, then Remainers dominated. But the vagaries of the UK electoral first-past-the-post system allowed Prime Minister Boris Johnson to squeak home with his Trump-like meaningless slogan, “Get Brexit Done”. Most serious commentators, such as those in leading newspapers such as the Financial Times, conclude that leaving the EU is a huge blunder. And now the UK must live with its unknown consequences.

Trade agreements

In my own petition for remaining – that lasted two years – I emphasised that the UK must now renegotiate at least 700 trade agreements with 27 nations, which seriously puts Northern Ireland, Scotland and even London at risk, as the UK breaks up to preserve EU membership – something two world wars with Germany failed to do.

Economically, it means a loss of easy access to its nearest market of 450 million people, probably losing at least half of the financial service organisations in London that contribute up to 90 per cent of the economy – while fishing, which was made a big issue, only comprises 0.03 per cent of the UK economy.

Then, Wales will lose its EU subsidies and will suffer since it has also lost its coal mines and steel industry. And there will be a loss of EU students coming to the UK, while UK students will be unable to benefit from easy acceptance at EU universities.

Thus Brexit leads to a ridiculous outcome, which is not even in the interests of the EU. The EU has a Parliament, one that needs strengthening and where Britain could have contributed significantly. One could also ask if leaving the EU is such a great idea why didn’t Germany or France campaign for their own exit?

The UK hopes to boost trade with countries such as the US, New Zealand, Australia, and China. But it does not take a genius to observe that distance between partners is a huge impediment to trade. The UK is 30km from Europe and over 5,500km from the US.

The overwhelming proportion of the economy of the UK is not in the trade of products but in services such as IT, science, finance, and knowledge. These aspects have hardly been discussed since 2016, and no-one knows what the future will hold for them. We do however know that travel between the UK and Europe will no longer be free for workers. We know too that anti-immigration was at the root of the disaffection among many Brexit voters. So does this mean that immigration from countries outside the EU such as Kenya will be easier? Unfortunately, not.

The anti-immigration lobby was essentially racist. Thus anyone who looks different from the average Brit won’t be welcome.

The National Health Service desperately needs medical staff such as nurses for which Kenya has been a source for years. But that will be harder now.

The UK’s departure from the EU may be a blessing in disguise for Kenya, as UK investors look for strongly growing countries that can both trade with the UK and are also unaffected by the EU’s imminent restrictions for the UK.

Recently, President Uhuru Kenyatta was in London and discussed such increased trade and investment.  Will the UK now see more Kenyans in their country, and Kenya sees more British tourists?

I hope so since the two great things about Kenya are the tremendous warmth of their welcome and the stupendous beauty of the country itself.

But Kenyans must endure travel restrictions, probably not too dissimilar from what the Brits will face as they try to travel to the EU in the future.

- Prof Michael Hopkins is an academic and businessman.