Road to East African unity has too many obstacles

Sadiki Sexwale

East African Community’s (EAC) plan to have a Monetary Union by 2012 and ultimately a political federation seems an unrealistic and far-fetched dream.

There are a number of obstacles which the member States must overcome before they can move forward. Under the EAC Charter, member States are scheduled to use one currency under a monetary union by 2012 or thereafter and then have one rotational Head of State under a political federation. In my estimation, these are false hopes.

First East Africans are obsessed by the use of their presidential portraits on currencies as a symbol of political power and authority. Which country will cede its big man’s picture on cash? Moreover, even if they were to use historical or natural landmarks such as mountains, lakes or animals, which country’s elephants, for example should be on the money? Politically, this is not viable since partners would incur expense when there is an election in the country holding the regional presidency.

The political federation could work well under an autocratic system, whereby one president clings to power forever by hook or crook. But under a democratic system, which all countries claim to embrace, such arrangements are not sustainable.

Furthermore, in 2012, Kenya is expected to hold its third General Election under multi-partyism, and with the experience of 2007, nothing is certain. Politicians are already jostling for succession come 2012, as incumbent President Mwai Kibaki is expected to relinquish power after completing his two five-year terms.

life president

Secondly, the fragile Grand Coalition Government has been dragging its feet in implementing key reforms to the chagrin of both multinational donors and neighbours.

In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni changed the constitution to run for a third term. He is also thinking of being life president of Uganda. This means Uganda will go to the polls in 2011, a year before Kenya’s while Tanzania under president Jakaya Kikwete will go for his second and last term next year.

Tanzania is reluctant to allow free movement of goods from Kenya to its market for fear of being ‘swallowed’. Kenya is seen as a threat to smaller economies in the region.

Kenya’s unfriendly business costs are said to be forcing foreign investors to look elsewhere. Her high cost of production created by a creaking infrastructure, high corporate tax, low investor confidence in the political establishment and insecurity, are driving away investors.

Moreover, Kenya has not formed the National Consultative Committee to steer the process and involve participation of a broad spectrum of stakeholders in the proposed EAC political federation.

While Tanzania and Uganda started collecting views from their citizens since the designated date of October 2006, Kenya has put its own in abeyance citing political and budgetary constraints. The partners had designated six months from October 2006 to April 2007 for the process in all the then three EAC partner states — Kenya Uganda and Tanzania — to make wide sensitisation and seek views of the East African people on critical issues of the proposed federation.

The National Consultative Process is intended to stimulate debate, deepen awareness and participation of the people in formulating the proposed Federation, its sustainability and benefits. After all, political and economic integrations are people-driven.

Goodwill of members

Although negotiations on the EAC Common Market protocol are ongoing, and signing is expected in November, the presence of non-tariff barriers that have threatened to derail the implementation of the Customs Union, are also hindering growth in trade in the region.

According to the Treaty, the harmonisation aims to remove tax distortions and bring efficient allocation of resources within member States.

The Arusha-based secretariat itself does not have the mechanisms to enforce any decisions by states and banks on goodwill of members to get its decisions implemented. Unfortunately, member subscriptions to the secretariat are not up to date.

These factors and others have contributed to the dragging of fast-tracking the process to full co-operation and ultimate integration.

The writer is a media practitioner in Nairobi.