Somali warlords make backing TFG a bad bet for Kenya

Ally Jamah

Islamists, led by Al-Shabaab, are staring down the Somali capital Mogadishu, and will almost certainly wrest its control from Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

Ahmed has called on the international community to protect the TFG — currently defended by 4,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi, and clan militia — from collapse. Through its Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula, Kenya has come out strongly in support for TFG, called for a blockade to cut off arms supply to insurgents and urged more military assistance. But is Kenya spending its diplomatic capital wisely by betting on the TFG?

A close analysis dispels hopes the TFG can restore peace to the troubled country, which has had no central government for two decades. The biggest issue that makes TFG a bad bet is than it is mostly made of up of clan warlords who have little interest in a central government. They have links to arms smuggling, piracy, currency printing and other profitable ‘businesses’ and are hostile to a return to stability, which would put an end to their illegal activities. As members of the TFG, they have been doing their best to paralyse any serious moves to achieve peace. For the last five years, the warlords have been creating unnecessary controversies in Parliament and Cabinet on even the smallest issues, exploiting clan suspicions to fuel divisions in the TFG.

The previous TFG of Abdullahi Yusuf, a former warlord, was formed in Nairobi five years ago amid much fanfare. But after four years, it is difficult to see what it achieved. His reign saw more than ten Prime Ministers hired and fired at the altar of clan politics!

Driven to despair

International pressure forced him out in December last year, when he tried to fire his PM for publicly accusing him of being an obstacle to peace. Disagreements between warlords, a majority even in the current Parliament, have driven citizens to despair: Public opinion is now firmly against the warlords in government.

Sheikh Sharif Ahmed’s election has served to give the TFG a fresh coat of paint, but clan warlords are still in important positions in the government and are beginning to frustrate his reform plans. Many of the TFG’s members spend most of their time in Nairobi. This year, Wetangula threatened to deport them, saying they were enjoying a luxurious life in Kenya while ordinary Somalis suffer.

It is, therefore, perplexing to see Kenya, perhaps the country most interested in a peaceful Somalia to bring an end to arms smuggling and the refugee problem, place its faith in the TFG. What little support it enjoys is traceable to the personal popularity of Ahmed and a few fresh faces in Cabinet, not the warlords.

The TFG only recently voted to introduce a moderate Islamic legal system, a move aimed at improving its battered image with the people.

Kenya is repeating the mistake it made in 2006 when it supported Yusuf’s TFG against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which was credited with restoring peace in Somalia unseen in a generation. The TFG eventually toppled the ICU with the military help of Ethiopia before reverting to politics of clan rivalries and divisions.

Had the ICU been given time to establish its roots, Kenya would by now have been relieved of the effects of instability inside Somalia.

Now history is repeating itself as Islamist groups face off with the TFG. While groups involved have changed, the character of the battle has not. On one side are those that see Islam, a faith shared by all Somalis, as the only unifying force. On the other are clan warlords divided by tribal and ‘business’ interests, led by a relatively clean president and Prime Minister.

Even without Islamist opposition, the TFG is not likely to move Somalia forward due to the deep entrenched interests of the clan warlords. I, therefore, urge the Kenya government to make the right decision this time. The interests of the country demand it.

We should ignore the propaganda peddled by the western media that Islamists plan to annex part of Kenya or to unleash terror attacks. Let us not confuse our real interests with the narrow interest of the west.

The writer is a journalist with the Standard Group.