China visit: Beyond trade, investment

President William Ruto with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China during his just-concluded state visit. [PCS] The deals and memoranda of understanding signed between China and Kenya during President Ruto's visit to China this week are mostly "hard," involving some concrete. Whether it is the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), new roads or factories, they are visible and tangible. A chicken farm was mentioned, right? We would have expected investments in critical areas like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and electric cars, in which the Chinese are leaders; think of a BYD factory for electric cars. Health and education-the two services that have been the Achilles heel of the Kenya Kwanza (KK) government- were mentioned in the MoUs. Major Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in education or health, equivalent to the superhighway or SGR, is rare. The closest was Bridge International Academies. Is it still operational? Yet the rise of China is driven by its focus on quality education and innovation. It was instructive that President Ruto gave a speech at Peking University, one of China's top universities, only rivalled by Tsinghua. The president also recently hosted students from Harvard University. What about local universities? The visit went further and gave the expected number of jobs to be created by each investment, a clear indicator that the KK government sees job creation as our number one problem. One interesting highlight of the China visit was the leasing of hotels to Chinese investors and the symbolism behind it. The two hotels mentioned are the Hilton and Intercontinental, both no longer operational despite being in the city centre. Their location when everyone is shifting out of the city is their soft underbelly. The Hilton, an American hotel chain, now has three hotels outside the city centre. Its leasing would be fascinating, shifting from Americans' partial ownership to Chinese. The Kenyan government holds a 40.58 per cent stake in the Hilton. The only other similar shift I witnessed was Chinese contractors building power lines across Happy Valley, once the bastion of British aristocrats. The government owns 33.8 per cent of Intercontinental. Leasing this one would be easy; its key patrons are MPs and their guests. Who would hate to own such a hotel where key decision-makers meet? Kenyans are very sceptical. When the news that the Chinese are going to lease the two hotels came out, one Kenyan asked if it's them who will do the actual leasing. Enough on hotels. Bringing Chinese investors, coupled with the state visit, is more than meets the eye. It seems the US grip on Kenya after the KK government came to power was not tight enough. Why is Kenya dancing with the Dragon? The tariff war between the US and China means the latter will seek new trading and investment partners to reduce reliance on a single market. Clearly, China would like to diversify its exports. China's export share to the US was about 16 per cent in 2022, declining to 12.8 per cent in 2023, and 14.7 per cent in 2024. The Chinese interest in Africa is a deliberate effort to diversify its markets and blunt US tariffs. China remembers "Trump I" and was probably ready for "Trump II." And Africa is a soft spot for Chinese market diversification. Why? One, the Chinese approach, through governments, has been successful in Africa. It cuts the "waiting time" to sign deals. This is why China seems to be upstaging the West. Remember, though, not calling themselves communist, a majority of African governments behave the same way, with big men and government control over most spheres of life. KANU and communist parties had a lot of similarities. Two, Africa is seeking investors and trading partners and is not very choosy. Our reputation and purchasing power make us unattractive. But our raw materials, from minerals to farmlands, leave everyone salivating. The state visit to China and the inflow of Chinese investment in Africa open a bigger and sober debate: Is Africa being "handed over" by the West to China? What will be the consequences? For over a century, the West ran Africa, directly through colonialism and indirectly after their independence through multilateralism and other institutions that mimicked those in "mother countries." Add language and traditions. Africa got foreign aid, debts, and donations, which are often factored into national budgets. We exported raw materials and imported manufactured products. We internalised that imports, even our names, are superior to locally produced goods and services. Think of cars, clothes, food, machinery, or even medical services, among others. Some argue that Africa simply learnt to be dependent. Will our "handover" to China make a difference? Noted the French "retreat "from West Africa? Did the Westget tired of Africa? Don't we abandon unprofitable businesses? Will China develop Africa, going beyond where the West stopped? Will China teach us to be self-reliant? China is ahead of Africa technologically and at par with or ahead of the West in some areas, like AI and electric cars. China is a power to reckon with in space, electronics, energy, semiconductors, robotics, and nuclear energy, among others. Why is China rarely mentioned in biotechnology and medicine? Will China behave like the West, exporting manufactured products while importing our raw materials? Will China bring the technology ashore to compete with itself? Will China help Africa develop to show the West that there can be a win-win for all partners? If China helps Africa develop, it will pose a serious question to Western civilisation: Why would a country less tied to religion help a continent more than the religious West? Could China actually help Africa develop to show its superiority? Will Chinese inroads to Africa lead to a new scramble, not to exploit Africa, but to develop the continent? It is also possible that other powers could blunt Chinese influence in Africa. Russia, Turkey and some Arab countries like the UAE are eyeing Africa too. Could Africa's self-consciousness, a realisation that we are the architects of our tomorrow, upend the Chinese entry into the once "dark continent?" A more curious question is, if China triumphs in Africa, which values will replace Christianity and Islam? Confucianism? What of governance? Will China export communism or its governance structures? The entry of China into Africa is not just about economic growth; it's also about the socio-cultural transformation of the continent and who will get the dividends.

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