Taiwan braces for uncertainty following Trump's victory

A person peeks into a U.S. election watch at a restaurant in Taipei, Taiwan, November 6, 2024.. [VOA]

Leaders from China and Taiwan have congratulated Donald Trump’s national election victory, despite growing uncertainty about how his second presidential term might impact dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged China and the United States to find the right way to get along in the new era, to benefit ‘’both countries and the wider world.”

He hopes the two sides will “uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation,” according to a readout released by China’s official Xinhua News Agency on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who came to power in May, said in a post on social media platform X that he is confident that the “longstanding Taiwan-U.S. partnership, built on shared values and interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity.”

On the Chinese internet, some social media users say they expect Trump to impose high tariffs on Chinese products but expressed mixed views on how the looming trade war might affect the Chinese economy.

In Taiwan, some Taiwanese people express concern about the U.S. reducing their support for Taiwan under Trump’s second term due to his comments about Taiwan during the campaign and his isolationist approach to international affairs.

“Judging from his comments on Taiwan over the last few months, I worry the U.S. won’t be so supportive of Taiwan if they want to stabilize relations with China,” Lydia Yang, a 35-year-old marketing professional in Taipei, told VOA by phone.

During an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July, Trump said Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense and compared U.S. military spending on Taiwan to an insurance policy.

“I know the people very well. Respect them greatly. They did take 100% of our chip business. I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he said during the interview.

In addition to asking Taiwan to pay for U.S. protection, Trump also accused Taiwan of stealing semiconductor technologies from the United States and threatened to impose tariffs against Taiwanese semiconductor companies.

“We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here. They're not going to give us the good companies anyway,” he said during an interview with Joe Rogan on October 25.

Some Taiwanese people said these comments reflect Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and underline that he would prioritize American interests once he returns to the White House next January.

“When it comes to things that don’t directly benefit the U.S., I would be worried about his approach,” Lai Ming-Wei, a 44-year-old engineer, told VOA in a recorded interview.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding the president-elect’s policy toward Taiwan.

Despite these concerns, some Taiwanese officials have tried to reassure the public that bilateral relations between Taiwan and the United States won’t significantly change under the second Trump administration.

“On relations across the Taiwan Strait, we believe that the United States will continue its current approach of constraining China and being friendly to Taiwan,” Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan National Security Bureau, told journalists on the sideline of Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday.

Analysts say while the basic elements of U.S.-Taiwan relations will remain the same, Trump’s campaign comments and more isolationist foreign policy approach could increase uncertainty for bilateral relations between Taipei and Washington.

“We don’t know what version of Donald Trump we are going to see and this kind of uncertainty doesn’t bring stability and predictability to the Taiwan Strait,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, told VOA by phone.

Other experts say Taiwan will have to take concrete actions to convince Trump that the island is serious about boosting its defense capabilities amid rising military pressure from China.

“Taiwan needs to offer something concrete, such as increasing the defense budget, because if Taiwan fails to do so, Trump may think Taiwan isn’t doing anything, so he doesn’t need to be too nice to Taiwan,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, speaking by phone to VOA.

Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo said on Tuesday that Taipei must show its determination to defend itself regardless of who won the U.S. presidential election.

“We have to let them understand that Taiwan has the determination to defend itself, and the importance of Taiwan’s economic security and strategic geopolitical position,” he told journalists on the sidelines of the parliament.

However, some Chinese analysts say Taiwan’s attempt to deepen military cooperation with the United States, including buying more weapons from Washington, would be counterproductive to the stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Trump’s comments about Taiwan paying for U.S. protection mean “he is asking Taiwan to increase their defense spending so they can buy more American weapons, but sending more arms to Taiwan wouldn’t help convince China that peaceful reunification is still possible,” Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in China, told VOA by phone.

Despite concerns about Trump’s potential policies toward Taiwan, based on his campaign comments, some analysts say it remains to be seen how his administration will formulate Taiwan policies.

“There are different voices in his camp. There are voices focusing on the economic competition side, which is represented by Trump himself, and there are voices talking about pulling away from Europe and focusing more resources in Asia to compete with China, and there are voices looking at drawing together U.S. assets, including allies, to compete hard with China,” Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, told VOA by phone.

However, he said Taiwan should be prepared for potential inconsistency in Trump’s approach as he tends to “cycle through officials very quickly” during his first term in office. “That inconsistency may create an impression that there’s an opening for Beijing,” Chong said.