The 50 per cent plus 1 headache for Ruto and the opposition

President Ruto.[File, Standard]

This week’s TIFA poll has offered one of the clearest snapshots yet of Kenya’s evolving 2027 electoral landscape, revealing a highly competitive but deeply fragmented race in which no candidate currently appears capable of securing the constitutional 50+1 threshold in a first round.

President William Ruto maintains a narrow lead at 24 per cent in the preferred presidential contest, followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Edwin Sifuna at 10%, and Rigathi Gachagua at 9 per cent, while 15 per cent of respondents remain undecided.