Raila Odinga: Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't

Raila Odinga. (Courtesy)

Raila Odinga’s name is synonymous with liberation struggles and multiple attempts at the presidency. Loved and loathed in equal measure, the second-born son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kenya’s first Vice President, evokes passion on both ends of the spectrum. The late Vice President Wamalwa Kijana once remarked that those who despised Raila did so with fervor, while his admirers were willing to die for him.

In Kenya’s political landscape, Raila’s life mirrors the story of the six blind men describing an elephant, each perceiving it differently depending on the part they touched. At the end of the day, none of the blind men had a holistic impression of the entire elephant. Over decades, Raila has captured the national imagination, yet no one seems to grasp the full essence of this political colossus.

For some strange reason, the very people who view Raila as their savior from excesses of the executive, do not want to make him their President. On a number of occasions, he has lost the presidency with a whisker. Pundits opine that there have been instances when his win was grabbed from him by the barrel of the gun.

Asked why he continues to run for the presidency despite the unfortunate results, Raila insists that his commitment is to see a better, freer and more democratic Kenya where citizens are protected by constitutional safeguards.

That summarizes his commitments to better governance that culminated in a new constitutional dispensation in 2010.

In the August 2022 presidential poll, Raila lost narrowly to his rival, President William Ruto. Pundits agree that it was the Mount Kenya region that tilted the vote in favour of President Ruto.

It is now emerging that the excitement that the region’s voters manifested towards Ruto was not so much because they loved him, but rather due to their disdain of Raila.

Opinion is still divided as to whether Ruto would have received the same number of votes from Mount Kenya region had Raila not been in the presidential ballot.

That is now water under the bridge. The recent impeachment of the Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua, brought to the fore the fluidity of the relationship between the region and President Ruto.

It is now clear that the people of Mount Kenya supported President Ruto only on the condition that their own son,  Gachagua, would eventually succeed him.

This confirms the earlier speculation that the region did not love President Ruto as much as they relished the possibility of regaining the presidency that they have so far held for a whopping thirty five years since Kenya’s independence in 1963.

The region therefore, made a conscious decision to vote for Ruto in order to punish Raila whom they believed would not be malleable for their long term political strategy. In fact, the region made it publicly known that they didn’t like Raila, and would not vote for him whatever the circumstances.

But now that Gachagua has been impeached, and the region’s hopes of clinching the presidency through him have dissipated, Ruto has become an object of hate within the region.

The intention is to isolate the President so that he becomes vulnerable to the forces that intend to remove him from the presidency. There has been behind-the-scenes lobbying to sway Raila to support the isolation of President Ruto from the rest of Kenyans.

Once it became apparent that Raila was not keen on that scheme, he too became a target of unwarranted attacks and slander. Following Raila’s public declaration that he was on the side of President Ruto in the matter of Gen-Z uprisings, the Mount Kenya region felt embarrassed and jilted by the man they hoped to misuse as a doormat to help them launder their political mess.

It is actually very difficult to be a Raila. People hate you with passion, but when their hatred backfires, they try to blame you for it! It is actually immoral to publicly demonstrate hatred towards a person, yet still expect him to support your selfish political moves.

When in 2023, Raila mobilized his supporters to demonstrate against the high cost of living, the Mount Kenya region accused him for using goons to destroy their businesses. After listening to the feedback from Kenyans, Raila called off the demonstrations, and instead opted for negotiations with the government.

In June this year, the Gen-Zs poured onto the streets of Nairobi and other major cities and towns to demonstrate against the very things that Raila’s supporters had been complaining about. The Gen-Zs and their backers must have expected Raila to support their course. Raila had other ideas. The opposition leader was very categorical that Kenyans had asked for broad-based negotiations rather than violent street demonstrations. He therefore, flatly rejected the Gen-Zs’ demand for President Ruto and his government to vacate office. Suddenly, the Mount Kenya region turned their heat on Raila for being a traitor.

Raila recently declared his candidacy for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, set to become vacant in February 2025. Instead of rallying behind him, some Kenyans have sought to undermine his bid.

Initial attacks centered on claims about his academic qualifications, which were debunked when his alma mater, Otto von Guericke University in Germany, confirmed his credentials.

Critics have since shifted focus to Raila’s political involvement, arguing it disqualifies him for the role. Such infighting reflects poorly on Kenya, as nations typically unite to support their candidates for international positions.

For several decades, Raila has been the to-go-to “Mr Fix It” for all Kenya’s political problems. Yet, Kenyans do not want to make him their President so that he can gain executive powers to fix the issues from the top.

Whenever he takes up his role as the opposition leader, the same Kenyans claim that he is disturbing their peace. Whenever he steps aside to let Kenyans manage their own affairs without his interference, the same Kenyans claim that Raila has abandoned them.

The question is: what exactly do Kenyans want Raila to do?

Professor Ongore teaches at the Technical University of Kenya*

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