With the looming Ruto-Raila party, focus shifts from Mt Kenya region

President William Ruto and Raila Odinga at State House, Nairobi, where he was officially unveiled as Kenya’s candidate for the Chairperson of the African Union Commission. [PCS]

In the last 72 months, no political discourse in the country was complete without  special mention of Mt Kenya.

Before, During and after the 2022 General Election, there was a lot of talk about the region, which had revolted against President Uhuru Kenyatta would vote and even after the polls, debate persisted about whether the unity would hold for the next five years.

But all that has now changed. The focus has shifted and the mountain is now playing second fiddle to the king from lake region, Raila Odinga and how he crossed the rift with his erstwhile  rival President William Ruto. 

President Ruto who was then the Deputy President, made countless visits to the region and he successfully snatched the region from the strangleholds of Uhuru and inherited his base by convincing majority of the residents to shift allegiance to him.

The few who were left on Uhuru’s side became Raila’s disciples as they tried to popularise his bid.

In Narck Kenya's party leader Martha Karua the opposition thought they had found an antidote to neutralise the hustler mania propagated by its most ardent crusader, Rigathi Gachsagua. 

And for the duration of the campaign, it was Martha who had been picked as Raila's running mate  verses Gachagua who would succeed as Kenya's second deputy president.

The two camps from the region tore each other politically all in the name of either Raila or Ruto. Ruto then assured the people that unlike Uhuru who had been spellbound by 

Raila’s mystic powers to the point of leaving him to manage the government and abandoning his people, he would be tough on Raila and would ensure he retreats to his Bondo home to enjoy the cash transfer funds.

Karua, vowed to crack the whip on corruption even as she wondered the source of Ruto’s generous contributions to the church fundraisers all in the name of campaigning for Raila.

Two years down the line, tables have turned, Gachagua and Karua who were stars in a national arena have been reduced into pawns who must now make sacrifices to save their respective kings in the unpredictable political chessboard.

The two have now been thrown into one corner by fate after the two former ODM founders, Ruto and Raila found themselves in an embrace thanks to the broad based government where the two are Principals.

The political foes turned allies are now speaking the same language with reliable information indicating that the two have tasked their allies to formulate a workable plan that will culminate into establishment of a special purpose vehicle for the 2027 general elections.

The plan according to the sources will see Raila name his preferred surrogate to be  Ruto's running mateso that  Nyanza and Western regions back Ruto’s reelection. This will cancel out the Mt Kenya effect and the casualties of this plan would be Gachagua and  Karua and their political bases .

As this new game plan unfolds, many political meetings and rallies that were held in Mt Kenya region are now shifting to Nyanza and Western regions to woo the region to back Ruto's re-election while Mt Kenya where the two leaders spent most of their times in, isolated in the next general elections.

During Ruto’s Nyanza visit this week, Raila allies led by senior ODM’s top leadership pushed for a political marriage between Ruto and Raila while others issued sarcastic and disparaging remarks against Gachagua over his past shareholding remarks and his ‘Mlima’ obsession right in front of his boss.

Led by National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed the ODM leaders said they are committed to being in the government after the 2027 election and praised Ruto for opting to work with them.

“There is nobody who was born to be in opposition to Kenya. I am holding my post as the minority leader for the next three years. Let those who want to be in opposition start preparing to be in opposition because we will be in the government as ODM,” Mohammed said.

Treasury CS John Mbadi said they owe Ruto a lot for his role in helping Raila become prime minister in 2008.

“Remember when Ruto was our friend during the Pentagon. Had it not been for him, Raila would not have been prime minister. And now the friendship between us is here again and this time if we work well with him, we will have good fortunes,” said Mbadi.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati said “President Ruto, if you feel any discomfort in your party in 2027, please come to ODM. We will welcome you very highly. You were a pioneer member of our party,” said the Kisii Governor.

The President said he is ready to work with ODM leaders for the long term saying “Are you guys ready we form the next government

Ruto said he had helped Raila before and there was nothing wrong if Raila returned the favour and that his collaboration with Raila will not end with his support for his bid for African Union Commission chairmanship and invited the opposition to join him in forming the next government.

“I helped Odinga some time back to form a coalition government. What is wrong if Odinga helps me with men from his party to help me run my government?”Ruto asked.

Junet , in a jibe aimed at Gachagua ironically said  he would donate  to him three ‘mountains’ from Nyanza so that he can as well be spending most of his time there. Gachagua has in the past been accused of spending his time in his backyard with his critics claiming he was behaving as a Deputy President of his community and not of the entire country.

“We are in a stage of liking mountains and I would like to donate three mountains to the Deputy President for him to like so that he can be coming here to live with us in Gwasi, Nyasare mountains,” he said.

Kasipul MP Ongondo Were said in reference to Ruto “You have picked two Cabinet Secretaries from this region and we are happy. We are the people, we have the numbers, we have evaded all the bobby traps and accessed government through panya routes,” he said in reference to Gachagua’s assertion that Raila would never see state house as he has set traps al over to thwart his mission..

Political analysts believe Raila’s entry into Ruto’s government will culminate into a political union given the past history while others opined that the move to sponsor Raila’s candidacy for African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship was a stop gap plan while the major plan was on the way.

Ahmed Hashi, a political commentator said in a TV show: “I think Ruto and Raila have something up their sleeves. And I think that this AU issue is a stop gap. I think the major elephant or the whale in the room is the 2027 elections.

On his part Communication Expert and Political analyst Edward Kasembeli interpreted the move by Ruto to look for other political partners other than Mt Kenya region that catapulted him to power was because he may have learnt that the region was slowly moving away from his grip. He believes that the only way Gachagua can survive was to engage his community and unite it for a bargaining power.

“Ruto is thought to be quietly disengaging from Mt Kenya region as that may not give him the political support in 2027 a move that may see career of politicians nipped in the bud and Gachagua’s survival strategy is to engage his community preaching betrayal card to earn their ear,” Kasembeli said.

This could explain why Gachagua has openly said that the Ruto-Raila unity has also opened a door to Mt Kenya looking for ‘friends’ to other communities.

Unlike before where Gachagua has concentrated in his community he has now been visiting other communities. On August 24, he was in Empuyiankat,  Kajiado county during a prayer service organized by the Maasai Ilkiramat age group where he pitched unity of communities to foster development and advancement of the country.

“It is encouraging to see the unity of the Maa community. For the unity of our nation, our communities must be united. Development of any community and the country will be quickly realised when we are united,” he stated.

He added “We support the President's call for the nation’s unity. All those who were in Azimio are now working with us. We are happy to work with everyone as guided by the President. Right now, we are focused on developing the country and serving Kenyans.”

There has also been reports that there are talks between Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and a section of Western leaders with a view of forming a political party that, if the marriage between Gachagua and Ruto breaks, will see the leaders forge an alliance for an alternative government.