ODM party faces uncertain future amid political realignments

National Assembly Opiyo Wandayi at the KICC, Nairobi, February 29, 2024. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

Opposition chief Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is facing uncertain times following the country’s political realignments that have thrust its top leadership into government.

The nomination of deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, alongside its chairman John Mbadi and Minority Leader in the National Assembly Opiyo Wandayi to President William Ruto’s cabinet robs the 19-year-old party of key allies.

The group is among the party stalwarts that have helped Raila to market the party and build a strong grassroots network across the country.

Should they accept the appointments, the senior ODM stalwarts are expected to quit their positions in the party to focus on public service.

Observers believe this is a major turning point for the party and will usher in a new crop of leaders or spell doom for the party that enjoys huge support across the country.

This is happening at a time when Raila is also campaigning for the African Union Commission chairmanship, further complicating matters for ODM.

His candidature and potential win of the seat is likely to push Raila out of local politics. The clouds have been gathering long before Ruto raided his House in a soft handshake and his allies have been salivating to replace him as the party leader.

Raila’s allies appointed to the cabinet are among those who have been scrambling to replace him as the party leader and inherit his opposition cradle should he win the AU job.

On Wednesday, hours after President Ruto announced the inclusion of Raila’s men to his cabinet, a section of ODM leaders claimed their appointments has opened a new page for young leaders to take over.

A senior ODM leader told The Standard that the race is now on to usher in a new ODM and replace the current leaders.

“Their departure to serve the government will open a new lease of life for our party. Younger brains will now take over and drive the party forward,” said the MP.

Among the names he claimed now have the chance to rise to the occasion include the party’s Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and his Narok counterpart Ledama Ole Kina.

Similarly, Kisii governor Simba Arati and his Homa Bay counterpart Gladys Wang’a have also been tipped to rise up the ranks to become the next force in Raila’s party.

But observers believe this is the end of ODM. They claim the greatest beneficiary will be Ruto’s UDA party.

According to Joshua Nyamori, a constitutional lawyer, it will take a miracle and an intense radical change for ODM to survive.

He believes that with ODM officials joining the government and Raila going to AU, ODM will die a natural death, split. 

Political marriage

“Already, they are pulling towards different directions and the main beneficiary of this will be the president’s party,” lawyer Nyamori says.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero thinks ODM is already split. “The superiority politics where everyone is fighting to inherit Raila’s position... That in itself will tell you that we have a party that is already split,” Mr. Obeiro says.

He opines that strength of a party depends on the presidential candidate they are fielding and how strong the presidential candidate is.

According to the lawyer, if ODM happens to field William Ruto, then the party would have been married by UDA.“The opposition will be running on the failure of the incumbent. They have been given very strong ministries and hence they will not have the audacity to oppose that government,” he says.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says ODM party is now in a coalition with UDA. “The hope is that the members will follow baba one more time and into 2027,” Mr. Bichachi says.

He believes ODM will not fragment for being in government.

According to Bichachi, the whole purpose of the existence of political parties is to attain power, which he believes they have done.

“Politicians have done what politicians do,” the analyst says.

Bichachi opines that it now means that Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is the de facto leader of opposition while President Ruto gains more control of parliament and government.

He sees a Western Kenya, Rift Valley alliance coming into focus.

Communication Strategist Barrack Muluka says ODM is basically back in Government and needs to formalize this by officially leaving Azimio and joining Kenya Kwanza.

“They cannot be in Cabinet while also occupying Minority Leadership in Parliament,” Dr Muluka says.

However, Muluka says, they have seen ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna cleverly saying that the four are joining Cabinet on their own, without permission from the Party.He believes that is a clever trick.

“They want both benefits. To eat their cake and have it. They should let what is left of a now very narrow Azimio to be the legitimate Minority in Parliament that they are,” Muluka says.

Communication specialist Dr Charles Nyambuga thinks Raila is certainly going to be out of the ODM bandwidth with time and one of the two party leaders would most likely be elected to hold the position.

“The elections would be delayed until Raila gets the AU position,” Dr. Nyambuga says.

However, he says for one of them to be a party leader, he would have to step aside and be non-partisan.

“But non-partisan in Kenyan politics under William Ruto has not been seen to be taking actual effect,” Nyambuga remarks.

He thinks the party might have to just put some people there to hold those positions while they are serving government.

Nyatike MP Tom Odege says they made a decision to help unite the country and that doesn’t mean they are killing the country or weakening the opposition.

“As ODM MPs, we shall remain in opposition and keep government on checks and it will be done,” he said.

On the AU job, he said they shall cross that bridge when they reach there.

Rangwe MP Lillian Gogo says it means nothing because they are all taxpayers and can serve in any capacity when called upon to serve.

She believes it is all about service delivery. She says if ODM members are fronted to go and serve Kenyans, they can serve in any capacity.

“They will not serve as ODM. They are Kenyans and when called upon to serve, they serve in any capacity,” Gogo says. 

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita says the president has been bold and inclusive by appointing the ODM members into his government.

“We have only one country, Kenya we must guard it with all we have,” Eng. Nyamita says.

On Wednesday, ODM supporters took to the streets in Homa Bay to celebrate the appointment of Mbadi to head the Treasury docket.

The jubilant residents danced along the streets of Magunga town, Sindo Town as another crowd gathered in Homa Bay Town.

 Historic position

The climax of the celebration was in Homa Bay Town where residents expressed their jubilation for getting the first CS for National Treasury.

Homa Bay MCAs led by Michael Nyang’i (Kochia), David Oloo (Kanyamwa Kologi), Susan Onyango (Gwassi South) Victor Okoth (Kaksingry West), nominated MCAs Florence Ouma, Jesica Otieno and Everline Otieno joined the residents in the celebration and hailed President Ruto for appointing Mbadi.

Nyang’i said the appointment is historic for the Luo community. noting they had not had a CS for Finance since Kenya gained independence.

“Mbadi has become the first Cabinet Secretary for Finance in Luo Nyanza since independence. This is historic for us as the Luo community,” Nyang’i said.

He said Mbadi is capable of transforming the public expenditure of this country as the CS for National Treasury.

“Mbadi is endowed with experience on accounting and we expect that this knowledge will help him to transform the development agenda of this country,” Nyang’i added.

Oloo argued that Mbadi’s appointment was a symbol of national unity in Kenya. “President Ruto has appointed Mbadi from the opposition coalition and this is very good. We highly encourage this,” Oloo said.

Report by Harold Odhiambo, Anne Atieno and James Omoro