ODM-UDA zoning quest a dangerous shortcut to relevance

President William Ruto chats with ODM Party Leader Senator Oburu Oginga during its 20th aniversary in Mombasa.[PCS]

There’s something fundamentally unsettling about a political class that claims overwhelming popular support yet simultaneously seeks pre-determined electoral outcomes. 

In every election cycle, Kenya finds a new vocabulary to sanitise old political habits. This season, the term is zoning, a polite expression for pre-determining leadership outcomes through elite bargains rather than open electoral competition. Its proponents frame it as a tool for inclusion and stability.

In reality, zoning is a quiet assault on democratic choice, a mechanism for ring-fencing power among political elites while reducing citizens to spectators in their own republic. At its core, zoning is an anti-competitive device. It substitutes the marketplace of ideas with a marketplace of negotiations among power brokers.

Instead of persuading voters, politicians negotiate territories. Instead of earning mandates, they inherit them. This is not democracy; it is managed democracy, orderly on the surface, hollow at the core. 

The 2010 Constitution was designed to move the country away from precisely this kind of elite orchestration. It enshrined competitive multiparty politics, devolution, and checks and balances to ensure that power flows from the people upward, not from boardroom agreements downward. Zoning reverses that logic. It entrenches what political scientists call elite cartelisation, where a small group of actors colludes to share power while excluding outsiders and diminishing voter agency. 

Supporters often argue that Kenya’s diversity necessitates such arrangements, that without them, elections risk becoming zero-sum ethnic contests. It is a seductive argument, but one that does not withstand scrutiny.

Inclusivity is not achieved by suppressing competition; it is achieved by expanding it. The Constitution already provides tools for inclusion, devolution, affirmative action, and proportional representation mechanisms within party structures. What zoning does is not to include more voices, but to pre-select which voices matter. 

For President William Ruto, this moment demands strategic clarity. Any engagement with zoning or coalition-based power arrangements must be approached with caution, foresight, and institutional safeguards.

Pre-election pacts, by their nature, are incomplete contracts. They are negotiated under uncertainty and often lack enforcement mechanisms. When expectations diverge, and they almost always do, the fallout can be severe.

The role of ODM in this equation is particularly significant. As a major political force with substantial parliamentary presence, ODM is not merely a coalition partner; it is a potential pivot.

If dissatisfied, it can shift from collaborator to challenger with considerable speed and impact. In a polarised legislature, such a shift could trigger legislative gridlock, undermine executive authority, and in extreme scenarios, catalyze impeachment proceedings. 

It must also be said, without equivocation, that some of the loudest voices pushing for zoning today are not acting from principle, but from proximity to power. A section of political actors who have, for years, clung to the political orbit of Raila Odinga, often presenting themselves as indispensable allies, particularly in post-election moments, are now among the most aggressive proponents of zoning.

Their interest is not democratic stability; it is political preservation. Zoning offers them a shortcut to relevance, a negotiated pathway to positions they may not secure in a fully competitive environment. 

More curious, and politically revealing, is that the zoning chorus is loudest in Nyanza. This is the same political base whose leaders have, for years, projected ODM as a national juggernaut, boasting support stretching from the shores of the Indian Ocean to the banks of the Limpopo. If indeed the party commands such expansive, cross-regional legitimacy, why the sudden retreat into managed outcomes? Why the hesitation to subject candidates to open, competitive primaries and ultimately to the will of the electorate? 

-The writer is a social worker in Kisumu County