Museveni will win election, but the landscape has changed

A street vendor beside a wall decorated with posters of Uganda’s incumbent president and NRM presidential candidate Yoweri Museveni, ahead of the 2026 Ugandan general elections, in Kampala on January 10, 2026. [AFP]

On the eve of Uganda’s 2021 presidential election, it was clear that regardless of how Ugandans voted, the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, would most likely be declared the winner. Amid mounting repression, accusations of vote rigging, and an internet blackout, that is exactly what transpired. Museveni was declared the winner for his sixth consecutive term in office.