Trump's return unlikely to be all doom and gloom for Kenya, others

US President-elect Donald Trump, with his wife Melania Trump (R), dances after watching fireworks during a reception in his honor at Trump National Golf Club Washington DC in Sterling, Virginia, on January 18, 2025. [AFP,Standard] The return of Donald Trump to the White House will occupy many pages of history. It will tax the brains of political scientists, economists, psychologists, sociologists, other experts and even idlers. How did someone convicted of felony, twice impeached and a disrupter win such a hotly contested election with almost a landslide? It seems every obstacle he faced made him stronger. I wish I could be that energetic at his age. Trump's energy is only comparable to Kenyan opposition chief Raila Odinga's. Both are unbwogable (unshakable). How did Trump hold or hypnotise his political base despite all the forces allied against him? He appealed to conservative values, and we must add, religion. Does that sound familiar? Emotions are one of the most powerful weapons in politics - wait for 2027. What about funding? Would he have won if funders like Elon Musk were not on his side? I noted it is not only in Africa where politics is an investment, with returns. I have looked at Trump appointees with keen interest. Is the threat of oligarchs pointed out by outgoing President Joe Biden real? One area the affluent allies of Trump could heavily influence is regulation of different sectors. We cannot discount the chaos in the Democratic Party. Replacing Biden that late in the race was a political gamble. And Democrats never learn. I have asked this question repeatedly: if Hillary Clinton - white and Anglo-Saxon - could not win the presidency, why would Kamala Harris? Did we underestimate how conservative the US can be? Enough of politics. Beyond the fear of political retribution in the US, Trump has spread fear beyond the borders. One is mass deportation, which I doubt will take place. That would raise the wages, and have political consequences. A shortage of workers would raise the price of labour (wages and salaries). The leading fear is economic, with the threat of tariffs on goods from key trading partners - Mexico, Canada, China and the European Union (EU). Tariffs are the linchpin of Trumponomics II. Beyond artificial intelligence (AI) and wars in Gaza and Ukraine, it is not yet clear how Trumponomics I and II will be different. Trump talked of tariffs in his first term just as he talked about the disputed Greenland. What is clear is that Trump is using the threat of tariffs to gain political mileage. That would create more jobs for Americans and hopefully not slow down innovation and efficiency that goes with competition. Jobs give politicians lots of political mileage. It is debatable if the Rust Belt jobs in steel and related industries will ever come back, without tariffs. He is also using tariffs to make countries make policy changes and act on illegal drugs and immigrants, particularly Mexico and Canada. What of the EU and China? Threatening tariffs is another way to project American power. What is making his economic policy based on tariffs more potent and disruptive is that many countries are tightly integrated with America through trade and supply chains. And they may not have the economic clout to hit back. High tariffs would decrease trade with other countries and increase joblessness with serious political consequences. A tariff is a tax that raises the price and reduces demand. Some countries could retaliate with their own tariffs. That would decrease trade and there will be no winners. Trump could also use the threat of tariffs to negotiate afresh with trading partners and extract concessions. One emerging consensus is that tariffs will raise the cost of goods and services in the US. Exporters compete for a lucrative USA market and that possibly lowers prices. Tariffs will raise the prices of imports. Add that to high wages if deportations take place or the inflow of immigrant workers reduces. The Republican Party can't hang itself. What about Kenya? Will the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) be renegotiated? What of foreign aid and loans? Remember, the US has a lot of leverage through the IMF and World Bank. President William Ruto made a State visit to America and met Joe Biden. How will he relate to Trump? How will he balance Trumponomics with the East (read China)? Will security issues make Kenya a close ally of the US? Will the threat of deportations lead to fewer remittances from the USA? Will reduced immigration to the US further reduce remittances, and will Kenyans shift to other regions? The US stock market is cheering Trumponomics because of expected deregulation and possible tax cuts. There is still a lot we do not know about Trumponomics II. What politicians say on the campaign trail and what follows when they get into office often differ. We have seen that here at home and in America is no exception. We shouldn't lose sleep over Trumponomics II. It is unlikely to be as radical as it sounded on the campaign trail; it will adjust to reality on the ground.

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