Align Kenya's strategic interests with next leadership in the US

When US President Joe Biden hosted his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto at the Oval Office in the White House, Washington, D.C on May 23, 2024. [PCS]

As the United States approaches its 2024 presidential election, the outcome will significantly shape the future of Kenya-US relations.

The direction of this bilateral relationship will hinge on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency.

If Trump returns to office, Kenya might experience a revival of the policies that characterised his previous administration.

Trump’s focus on Africa was largely driven by economic interests, especially in countering China’s influence on the continent.

His administration’s “Prosper Africa” initiative sought to boost US trade and investment in Africa, with a particular emphasis on creating opportunities for American businesses.

Under a Trump administration, the relationship between the US and Kenya could become more transactional, with a strong emphasis on bilateral trade deals that favor American companies.

While this could lead to increased US investment in Kenya’s natural resource sectors, it might also result in a decreased focus on development aid, which has been a crucial aspect of US support for Kenya.

Additionally, Trump’s stringent immigration policies could create obstacles for Kenyans seeking to work or study in the US, potentially weakening the people-to-people connections that have historically strengthened ties between the two countries.

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the relationship between the US and Kenya might continue on the trajectory established by the Biden administration.

As Vice President, Harris has been instrumental in advancing policies that emphasise democracy, human rights, and climate change—areas that align closely with Kenya’s development objectives.

The Biden administration, particularly through the efforts of Ambassador Meg Whitman, has focused on strengthening economic ties with Kenya, encouraging American investment, and supporting Kenya’s efforts to improve its business environment.

A Harris administration is likely to maintain this balanced approach, combining economic cooperation with a commitment to shared values.

This could lead to continued support for Kenya’s development initiatives and increased US involvement in addressing regional security challenges and climate change.

Given Kenya’s prominent role in East Africa, this enhanced collaboration could further solidify its position as a regional leader.

The outcome of the US election will have profound implications for Kenya-US relations. A Trump presidency could result in a more business-centric, transactional relationship, while a Harris administration would likely pursue a strategy that blends economic cooperation with a focus on shared values and multilateral engagement.

Kenya will need to carefully navigate these potential outcomes, aligning its strategic interests with whichever administration takes office.

Whether through increased trade and investment or deeper collaboration on global challenges, the future of Kenya-US relations will be shaped by the decisions made in Washington, with important consequences for both nations.

Mr Opiyo is an economist and strategy consultant