Ukraine’s farmers stalled, fueling fears of massive global food shortages

A combine harvests wheat in a field near the village of Hrebeni in Kyiv region, Ukraine July 17, 2020. [Reuters]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens millions of tiny spring-time sprouts that should emerge from stalks of dormant winter wheat in the coming weeks.

If the farmers can’t feed those crops soon, far fewer of the so-called tillers will spout, jeopardising a national wheat harvest on which millions in the developing world depend.

The wheat was planted last autumn, which, after a brief growing period, fell dormant for the winter.

Before the grain returns to life, however, farmers typically spread fertiliser that encourages the tillers to grow off the main stalks.

Each stalk can have three or four tillers, increasing the yield per wheat stalk exponentially.

But Ukrainian farmers - who produced a record grain crop last year - say they now are short of fertiliser, as well as pesticides and herbicides. And even if they had enough of those materials, they can’t get enough fuel to power their equipment.

Elena Neroba, a Kyiv-based business development manager at grain brokerage Maxigrain, said Ukraine’s winter wheat yields could fall by 15 per cent compared to recent years if fertilisers aren’t applied now. Some farmers warn the situation could be much worse.

Some Ukrainian farmers told Reuters their wheat yields could be cut in half, and perhaps by more, which has implications far beyond Ukraine.

Countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen and others have come to rely on Ukrainian wheat in recent years. The war has already caused wheat prices to skyrocket — rising by 50 per cent in the last month.

The Ukrainian farming crisis comes as food prices around the world already have been spiking for months amid global supply chain problems attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic.

World food prices hit a record high in February, and have risen over 24 per cent in a year, the UN food agency said last week. Agriculture ministers from the world’s seven largest advanced economies were due Friday to discuss in a virtual meeting the impact of Russia’s invasion on global food security and how best to stabilise food markets.