Why Japan's PM is in danger, and who wants his job

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responds to questions from reporters at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 23, 2025. [AFP] Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba looks on thin ice. AFP looks at the reasons and at who might instead helm his moribund party, at a challenging time for the Asian powerhouse. What ails Japan? Japan has a rapidly ageing population, colossal national debt, and the economy is teetering on the brink of recession as inflation pinches consumers. Despite a new trade deal with President Donald Trump, Japanese imports still face tariffs of 15 percent and Tokyo has promised $550 billion of investments into the US economy. The close US strategic ally is also under pressure to further hike defence spending and be more muscular in case of confrontation with China over Taiwan. Who is Shigeru Ishiba? Diligent career politician Ishiba, 68, is from Japan's tiny Christian minority and is partial to policy nitty-gritty, model battleships and cigarettes. Seen as a safe pair of hands, he became the ninth person since 2000 to lead the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on his fifth attempt in September, promising a "new Japan". But his poll rating has plummeted because of anger over rice prices and a party funding scandal. Ishiba's gaffes have also prompted ridicule on social media. One survey in the Yomiuri daily conducted over the long weekend after Sunday's election put backing his cabinet at just 22 percent. "Ishiba, who had been seen as someone who could reform the LDP, failed to demonstrate what he wanted to do after taking office," Sadafumi Kawato, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, told AFP. What about the LDP? The LDP has governed almost non-stop since 1955, but one of the world's historically most successful parties needs a reboot. Sunday's upper house election calamity means that the ruling coalition is now in a minority in both chambers, a first for a Japanese government since 1945. Support has leaked to smaller parties, including notably the populist "Japanese first" Sanseito, although the fragmented opposition is seen as unable to cobble together an alternative government. Rising cost-of-living concerns resulted in "unpleasant anti-foreign rhetoric" during the election campaign, Moody's Analytics economist Stefan Angrick told AFP. "You need a government that actually has a forward-looking agenda, that has a vision for where to take the economy," he said. Will Ishiba quit? Despite comments on Wednesday interpreted by some media as ruling this out, multiple reports still say that it is just a matter of timing. The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported that Ishiba will announce his resignation by the end of August. Kyodo News said that his departure is "inevitable". The LDP's Youth Bureau held an online meeting where a majority of participants said Ishiba's "immediate resignation" was necessary, the bureau's head and MP Yasutaka Nakasone said. Who could replace him? Despite the challenges, the Yomiuri suggested no fewer than nine possible successors in a leadership contest that could happen in September. One is Sanae Takaichi, a hardline nationalist and onetime heavy metal drummer who lost to Ishiba last time. She would be Japan's first woman premier. Others include the liberal-leaning, US-educated Taro Kono, reputedly short-fused former LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, and chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. All are in their 60s. A younger option is Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, the telegenic, surfing son of an ex-premier who was recently tasked with lowering rice prices. "(This) could be a great opportunity to break through the sentiment of stagnation or decline of national power, especially if political leadership shifts to a younger generation," UBS economist Masamichi Adachi said. Japan's "decline will not halt without a significant shift in politics that can push through reforms that have not been seen in the last 40 years," he said.

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