Ruto-Uhuru meeting: What next for economy?

President William Ruto meets his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta at his Gatundu Home on December 9. [PCS, Standard]

I believe there was more than meets the eye in the recent meeting between President William Ruto and his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta.

It raised more questions than answered. One is why now? Two, why at Ichaweri? Three, why did he fly there; and four, what are the unintended consequences?  

First, the content of their discussion was relayed to the media. It was a matter of national interest, but what was left out matters the most.  

And we may never know it. The media was quick to mute anything on a possible “handshake.” That was curious because the meeting mirrored that between Uhuru and erstwhile opposition leader Raila Odinga.  Our politicians could be good students of history!  

The famous handshake cooled the political temperatures, culminating in President Uhuru supporting Raila in his quest to be Kenya’s 5th president.

But it ended up being his Achilles heel as the voters, mainly from his Mt Kenya backyard, revolted against Uhuru, questioning why Raila, the biggest critic of his government, had suddenly become “good.” They overwhelmingly voted for Ruto. 

Raila then got into another “handshake” with President Ruto, best espoused by cabinet slots to members of his ODM party. It has not been characterised as such. Why? 

What makes the Uhuru-Ruto meeting more poignant is that the two parted ways even before the 2022 polls.  

They have a long history together starting with visits to The Hague as the key suspects behind the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

They wiggled their way out, both ending up becoming presidents. Was it baptism by fire? Did they reminisce on their experiences at the International Criminal Court at the Hague during their Ichaweri meeting?  

They have come together now for the same reason. They are in political and economic trouble.

President Ruto’s honeymoon in Central Kenya is not going according to plan. The voters feel wameachwa kwa mataa (left stranded).

They are accusing him of failing to keep his promises. Uhuru’s star, on the other hand, has been rising as the voters remember his warnings on their political choices. 

Through the meeting, Ruto was the biggest beneficiary. Uhuru will be asked the same question: Why is Ruto good now?

It will be hard for Uhuru to endorse Ruto in 2027 just like Raila. Who will he endorse?  But in politics, today often matters more than tomorrow.  

What of former DP Gachagua? He has been full of praise for Uhuru lately after going through a Damascan moment.

Did Ruto decide to grab Uhuru before Gachagua, a preemptive strike?  Without Uhuru, Gachagua’s political star will keep dimming. In real politics, Ruto meeting Uhuru was a master stroke. Will Uhuru’s stature diminish because of the meeting? 

It will be a more potent meeting if Uhuru delivers something to Central Kenya through Ruto, specifically cabinet slots. That would be a confirmatory test for the “handshake.”

What did Raila get from the handshake with Uhuru? I don’t recall any cabinet slots. Such slots could probably soften Central Kenya’s hearts. Reviving some development projects in the region could charm President Ruto’s way back to the hearts of “the mountain” voters.  

The meeting had another unintended consequence. It will check ODM’s rising influence in the government. It is like getting a secondborn; the attention is now shared with the older sibling.  

Adversity creates friends. Ruto and Uhuru are entrepreneurs. The economy is not doing well and neither are their businesses.

Did you see Kenya‘s GDP growth rate revised to 4.7 per cent?  A bad economy and its effect on politics could have brought the two together. 

The meeting will cool the political temperatures just as Raila’s handshake did. That could help the economy pick up.

We shall all benefit like a rising tide that raises all boats. Remember the state of the economy has been Kenya Kwanza’s soft underbelly. 

We should also see the meeting through a wide-angle lens.  We now have three top political leaders - Raila, Uhuru and Ruto in the same boat. It seems Kenya‘s political elite flocks together when threatened politically. Did the Gen Z protests bring Ruto, Uhuru, and Raila together? What else? 

It gets more convoluted. What does this grouping say about the dynasty-hustler narrative? I can give you a hint; no member of the dynasty has been demoted into a hustler. The voters must be shaking their heads. 

The last question would be why did they meet at Ichaweri (we are used to Gatundu?). Does the location suggest the meeting was on Uhuru’s terms?

Could that “protect” Uhuru against negative reactions?  He can always say: Alikuja nyumbani (he came to my backyard). Why did President Ruto fly, yet it is so near?  What sort of crowd could he have met on the way?  

Finally, what does the Ruto, Raila and Uhuru grouping portend for 2027? Will they decide who will be our next president? How will the masses react? Food for thought over this Christmas.