Uhuru’s game plan

By Alex Ndegwa

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has pushed his campaign to succeed President Kibaki into overdrive, despite his scheduled trial at the International Criminal Court.

He and his political allies are advancing a game plan to ensure he is a formidable candidate for State House, even as ICC officials in The Hague plan for trials in the cases against him and three other Kenyans.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta with Eldoret North MP William Ruto at a prayer rally in Letein, Bureti on Saturday. [Photo: BONIFACE THUKU/STANDARD]

The plans are hinged on the calculation the trials will not start this year, a development that might have had serious practical repercussions for a presidential campaign.

Recent signs of this road map to the big house include last week’s Cabinet changes, which saw allies of Uhuru appointed to key positions, his heightened search for a preferred election vehicle, and plans to firm up his alliance with Eldoret North MP William Ruto with a statutory pre-election agreement.

Two weeks after the so-called ‘Gema nation’ meeting at which Uhuru pledged to name his preferred party later this month, Cabinet minister Kiraitu Murungi has invited central Kenya MPs for a meeting on Tuesday at the Landmark Hotel in Nairobi to chart a roadmap.

"This will be a follow-up to the Limuru II meeting, where we will discuss further the political party and direction we will take," reads a phone text message Kiraitu sent to MPs on Saturday.

And in a well-choreographed plan, Kalenjin leaders will also be meeting in Eldoret on Tuesday to declare their support for Ruto.

Uhuru’s statement at the Gema meeting left no doubt he is set to dump Kanu, of which he is chairman and which his handlers felt is not "saleable". There had been talk of turning the independence party into a coalition-ready vehicle, the Kenya Alliance of National Union, but this foundered on opposition both within and outside the party. Uhuru must choose his party before the April 30 deadline for compliance with registration requirements.

Top seat

Although a trial chamber for the two Kenya cases was constituted on Thursday, ICC accused Uhuru and Ruto still have a slim chance of gunning for the top seat if the trial begins after the General Election.

In a run-off scenario, Uhuru, who opinion polls suggest is the main challenger for the frontrunner, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, hopes to gain from the support of forces ranged against the ODM leader.

With Ruto set to run for the top seat on a United Republican Party ticket, opinion polls have suggested a run-off would be inevitable in the crowded field. Uhuru and Ruto are expected to have signed a pre-election pact in case of a run-off. The thinking in both camps is that whoever qualifies for the run-off will receive the backing of the other. The Political Parties Act provides that two or more political parties may form a coalition before or after an election detailing the formula for sharing of positions in the coalition.

After parties comply with requirements for full registration by April 30, it is understood those that back Uhuru’s candidature will come together, as PNU did in 2007 for Kibaki, but in a structured manner.

The Constitution is clear in case of a run-off the respective presidential tickets cannot be altered. Already the scheme to fix Raila on this provision is under way.

With his appointment as Justice Minister, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa has been thrust into the political frontline in preparation for his anticipated role as Uhuru’s running mate. The strategy is to woo the western Kenya vote and increase pressure on Raila to stick with his deputy, Musalia Mudavadi who has challenged him for the ODM ticket.

If Raila retains Mudavadi, he is damned because the ODM ticket will be attacked for being "too western" against the Central-Western ticket that will be Uhuru-Eugene. If he dumps Mudavadi, he is damned, too, because the Uhuru camp would not tire to remind the region their man had been spurned. Raila’s men have somewhat played into rivals’ hands by labeling Mudavadi a project of the G7 Alliance hence heightening prospects of an ODM break up. On Saturday, Uhuru’s spokesman Munyori Buku said: "Uhuru will be in the presidential race. His team is up and running. Talks with like-minded leaders are on and Kenyans are ready and willing to support us."

Since his backing of President Kibaki’s re-election in 2007, Uhuru’s political star has risen, propelled by his appointment as Deputy Prime Minister and the ICC charges that have galvanised euphoric support of him in central Kenya.

Recent developments portray a politician who has taken the initiative to ensure his presidential candidature stays on course rather than wait for fate to shape his destiny.

"He has looked at the options and perhaps decided Kanu is not his election vehicle. Uhuru is keeping his cards close to his chest, but certainly working hard for his success," Special Programmes minister Esther Murugi told The Standard On Sunday on Saturday. The ICC cases present a real threat to his political career. Some say this explains the recent Cabinet changes that overhauled the composition of the Cabinet committee on ICC, which was perceived as stacked with ODM sympathisers.

It was President Kibaki who sounded out the PM about Monday Cabinet reshuffle that saw Eugene’s elevation and Sam Ongeri appointed as Foreign Affairs minister. The move effectively edged Mutula Kilonzo and Moses Wetangula out of the sensitive committee.

The Office of the President informed the Prime Minister’s Office of the urgency to make substantive appointments in Finance and Environment, but the new-look Cabinet highlighted political jockeying linked to the Kibaki succession. It is understood the President and PM did not formally meet at Harambee House over the Cabinet changes, which their top aides finalised. Sources say the two spoke on telephone to seal the reshuffle. Crucially, although the reshuffle was portrayed as meant to fill the dockets of Finance, citing the Treasury’s executive functions, and Environment, over a scheduled international conference, the rise of Uhuru allies at the expense of rivals stood out.

At the Justice Ministry, Eugene replaced Mutula, who has annoyed the G7 with his insistence that Uhuru and Ruto cannot contest the presidency while facing ICC trials.

The Government seems determined to have the ICC cases involving Uhuru and Ruto referred to Kenya and Eugene is viewed as safe hands.

In one fell swoop, the G7 Alliance ejected Mutula and Sirisia MP Moses Wetangula, who was moved from Foreign Affairs to Trade.

Recent reshuffle

Speaking on Saturday at a prayer-cum-political rally Uhuru praised President Kibaki on the changes. "I thank the President for what he did during the reshuffle and for bringing in ministers who can deliver. Leaders of hate like Mutula should go back to school and let young leaders show direction to Kenyans," he said.

Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni opined: "The Government had failed in its efforts on the ICC cases because virtually all members of the Cabinet committee on ICC had taken the ODM prescription."

Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara says the wing in Government keen to avoid ICC trials at The Hague has been bolstered. "They needed somebody sympathetic to their cause and they have that person in Eugene."

While Raila’s hand in Wetangula’s reappointment was a matter of conjecture in August last year, his recent dalliance with ODM left little to the imagination of his rivals. The G7 was increasingly becoming uncomfortable with Wetangula holding the crucial docket at a time he was seen as warming up to their bitter rival.

Imanyara said the storm over the discredited ICC dossier, which was meant to put the UK on the defensive, complicated Wetangula’s tenure.

"It has emerged that those blaming the West claim the contact person with diplomats was Wetangula," a reliable source says.