America Decides: When can we expect the final outcome?

 

People wait in line to vote outside a polling station at the Dryland United Church of Christ on Election Day in Nazareth, Pennsylvania on November 5, 2024. [AFP]

The United States is just days away from its presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump focusing their campaigns on crucial swing states, where every vote matters.

As Election Day approaches, we take a closer look at what to expect on the day itself and how the results may unfold.

When is the US election?

The election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

In most states, polling stations will open between 7am and 9am local time. Given the span of multiple time zones in the US, that would be between 10:00 GMT and 15:00 GMT.

At what time does the polling end?

Poll closing times differ from state to state and sometimes county to county.

However, most polling stations will close between 7pm Eastern Time and 11pm Eastern Time (00:00-05:00 GMT).

When does the US vote counting begin, and when can we expect the results?

Just hours after the first polls close at 7pm Eastern Time (00:00 GMT), results are expected to start coming in. However, some states will tally votes more quickly than others. As polls close several hours later in states to the west, their first results will only start coming later – when some eastern states might already have been called for Harris or Trump.

In a tight race between them, counting could continue well past election night, and we might not know the winner for several days.

“It’s really close,” says Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s National Polls tracker, Harris maintains a narrow national lead of about 1.2 points as of Friday.

However, La Raja explained that the polls might not accurately capture some voter groups, which could lead to surprising results for either candidate. If the polls are wrong and the race is not as tight as expected “then we will know pretty quickly,” he added.

“But my guess is we will not know in the first few days.

People wait in line to vote outside a polling station at St. John's Evangelical Lutheran Church on Election Day in Bath, Pennsylvania on November 5, 2024. [AFP]

“It’s so close [that a candidate might] not concede… so I would get out the coffee and tea because it’s going to be a long evening that might go into few days.”

What do we know about the swing states?

Seven swing states are expected to be key in deciding the presidential race outcome.

These key states include Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), collectively totaling 93 Electoral College votes.

A candidate needs at least 270 out of 538 Electoral votes to win the election.

Polls in these states will close between 7pm and 10pm Eastern Time (00:00 to 03:00 GMT).

Some of the first results will likely come from Georgia, where state law requires that all early votes be counted and reported by 8pm Eastern Time (01:00 GMT) on election night.

North Carolina follows. In this state, votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with complete results anticipated by midnight (04:00 GMT).

In 2020, Nevada was slow, and the state was not called until five days after election day. Since then, the rules have changed, and the process is expected to move faster this time. Still, the results might not be known on election night. The state allows late-arriving mail ballots, so it could take days until we know the final results.

Pennsylvania, one of the most important battleground states, did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day. The state is one of only a few that do not allow election workers to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, which means it will likely take several days before the results are known.

In Michigan, the counting could be faster than in previous elections, as it now allows officials to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day, but we do not have a clear time yet for when the state might be called.

In Arizona, officials can begin processing mail ballots as soon as they are received. First results are expected to be reported at about 10pm Eastern Time (03:00 GMT), one hour after the polls close.

Finally, in Wisconsin, poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, which means there could also be delays, similar to Pennsylvania. According to a CNN report, results are not likely until Wednesday.

What happens if there is a tie?

If there is a 269-269 tie or a third-party candidate wins Electoral votes, preventing any candidate from reaching 270 votes, the step that follows is known as a “contingent election”.

A contingent election is the process that takes place when the US House of Representatives decides the winner. Each state’s delegation in the House casts one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority of the state delegation votes to win.

The US Senate would then choose the vice president with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.

Democrat's Presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republical rival and former President Donald Trump. [AFP]

There have been three instances of contingent elections in the US, in 1801, 1825 and 1837. The closest election in recent years was the 2000 presidential contest when George W Bush won 271 Electoral College votes – just one more than he needed – after a controversial recount in Florida. Outgoing Vice President Al Gore won 266 Electoral College votes.

Is there concern about a potential delay this year?

If the announcement of results is delayed, “it definitely increases feelings of fraud and illegitimacy,” La Raja said.

“The longer we wait, people are like: what’s going on behind those closed doors? How are they counting the ballots? Who’s lying?,” he added.

He says it’s better to have a tight election and reach “the verdict quickly.”

These fears and doubts arose in 2021, when thousands of supporters of then-President Trump stormed the Capitol, trying to overturn his 2020 election loss and forcing lawmakers to run for safety. This happened after he told his supporters to “fight like hell.”

What has happened in previous years?

In the last election in 2020, the results were announced four days after the election on November 3, once Pennsylvania’s results were confirmed. In the previous 2016 election, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election.

In the 2020 election, some states experienced what is known as a “red mirage,” with Trump appearing to lead when the initial votes were counted on election night. However, a “blue shift” took place as additional mail-in votes were counted, and President Joe Biden took the lead.