Japan PM warns 'today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia'

Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his inaugural policy address in the lower house of parliament in Tokyo on October 4, 2024. [AFP]

Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned in his first policy speech Friday that "today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia" while also dubbing the country's low birth rate a "quiet emergency".

"Many fear that today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia. Why did deterrence not work in Ukraine?" Ishiba told parliament.

"Combined with the situation in the Middle East, the international community is becoming increasingly divided and confrontational," the 67-year-old former defence minister said.

Ishiba made no direct reference to China but his country's relations with Beijing have deteriorated in recent years as it asserts its military presence around disputed territories in the region.

Of particular concern is Taiwan. Beijing claims the democratic island as part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control.

Japan has also irked China with plans for a major increase in defence spending and by boosting security ties with the United States and its allies including the Philippines and South Korea.

In August, a Chinese military aircraft staged the first confirmed incursion by China into Japanese airspace, followed weeks later by a Japanese warship sailing through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.

Ishiba has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO, saying on Tuesday that the security environment in Asia was "the most severe since the end of World War II".

Falling population

Japan, like many developed countries, is facing a looming demographic crisis as its population ages and the birth rate stays stubbornly low.

The country has the world's oldest population after tiny Monaco, according to the World Bank.

Last year, its birth rate -- the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her life -- stood at 1.2, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population.

On Friday, Ishiba called the birth rate situation a "quiet emergency", adding the government would promote measures to support families such as flexible working hours.

Minimum wage

Kishida was unpopular with voters because of a string of scandals and inflation squeezing earnings in the world's fourth-biggest economy.

Ishiba wants to boost incomes through a new monetary stimulus package as well as support for local governments and low-income households.

Within this decade, he said Friday he wants to hike the average national minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10.20) per hour, up nearly 43 percent from the current 1,050 yen.

The yen surged last Friday after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) voted Ishiba its new leader, because he had broadly backed the Bank of Japan's exit from its ultra-loose policies.

But Ishiba told reporters late Wednesday he did not think the environment was right for further interest rate hikes, sending the Japanese currency south again.

On Friday afternoon, one dollar bought 146.02 yen, having slightly recovered from levels past 147 earlier this week.

Succession

Ishiba also weighed in on the dearth of eligible male heirs to the imperial throne.

Male-only succession rules mean the imperial family is facing extinction, with only one young heir: Emperor Naruhito's 18-year-old nephew Prince Hisahito.

The emperor's daughter Princess Aiko, 22, is barred from the throne under the Imperial Household Law, in place since 1947.

Royal women must leave the family when they wed a commoner -- as in 2021, when former princess Mako Komuro, Naruhito's niece, married her university sweetheart.

Lawmakers in May began discussing a possible relaxation of the strict succession rules, and a recent Kyodo News poll found 90 percent public support for female succession.

"Stable royal succession is extremely important. Stabilising the number of members of the Imperial Family is a particularly urgent issue," Ishiba told parliament, calling for active debate on the issue.