There was little to rejoice about as Kenyans shouted 'Happy New Year!'

President William Ruto's government is facing criticim over unpopular decisions. [File, Standard]

The transition from 2024 to 2025 was globally not a happy one despite loud shouts of “Happy New Year”. Depending on the time zones, there were firework celebrations and shouts of “Happy New Year” almost every hour although the reality on the ground was not ‘happy’. There was no happiness on the Russian-Ukraine border, in Palestine which is under routinised destruction, in the Horn of Africa with its multiple conflicts, and in Kenya where the police are accused of abductions, human rights abuses, and other unbecoming behaviours.

The history of Kenya’s post-colonial period is full of moments of political tensions. Some tensions are externally engineered, often fracturing the image of a stable and reliable country where things work. Such moments include the seemingly externally inspired 2007/2008 election crisis, fitting very well into Naomi Klein’s ‘Shock Doctrine Theory’ of International Relations that is often applied to Third World countries. Currently, there is the self-inflicted loss of common sense and trust in the governance evident in the 2024/25 end-of-year developments. Some players in the 2007/8 crisis, with President William Ruto in the lead, are also players in the 2024/25 public loss of trust in government.

Dr Ruto started his presidency with a lot of promise only to watch it dissipate in two years mainly because of wrong policy directions. His strong desire to be liked by Western powers and being projected as the new leader of Africa, with praises from US President Joe Biden and French President Emanuel Macron, made him fall into the trap of appearing to surrender Kenya’s national interests, especially sovereignty, to external forces. He did this in part because of a belief that as president he could do whatever he wanted since he was given a ‘sword’ whose purpose was not to cut cabbage. He adopted an air of absolutism in domestic affairs as his ‘hustler grandees’ assumed ‘aristocratic’ airs and tended to treat ordinary people as ‘subjects’ rather than ‘citizens’. In making it appear as if they had suspended the  Constitution, the ‘grandees’ aroused resentment and resistance.

The resistance to Ruto’s neo-absolutism and virtual surrender of Kenya’s sovereignty to external interests accounts for repeated confrontations in 2024. Among the symbols of the surrender were the IMF and World Bank prescriptions, the Adani deals, the Bill Gates connection to the alleged cow vaccination project, and the freedom of foreign countries like Turkey and Uganda to abduct people in Kenya. Critics, Senator Okiyo Omtatah among them, demanded the release of abducted Kenyans, got arrested and appeared in court singing songs of liberation.

At the turn of the year, the main news from Kenya was about abductions, purchase of drones from Turkey, police tear-gassing church functions in Nyandarua, Omtatah’s group in court, and reports about ranking Ruto as the second most corrupt leader in the world as deposed Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua gained popularity, hammering at Ruto’s failures and appealing to Gen Zs, Ruto became desperate.

Desperate Ruto is politically resilient and cunning. During the Gen Z crisis, he roped in Raila Odinga’s ODM to fix Gachagua. Then happily ODM jumped into Ruto’s government and still insisted on leading the ‘opposition.’ Instead of fading from the national scene, however, Gachagua increased sympathy popularity which almost became a cult. This sent Ruto to the political drawing board and he reached out to Uhuru Kenyatta and Mungiki founder Maina Njenga for help. Uhuru received Ruto in his Ichaweri home after which Ruto appointed supposed Uhuru friends to high offices. Njenga, with Gachagua out of the picture, issued his Kabiruini Declaration about supporting Ruto and Kithure Kindiki and claimed he had Uhuru’s backing to support Ruto. To fix Gachagua, it appeared Raila and Uhuru were willing to save Ruto’s political train from derailing. How long will that willingness last? The New Year celebration in Kenya was not necessarily ‘happy’.