What AUC race holds for Ruto's aspirations in Raila Odinga's turf

President William Ruto and Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at the Raila Odinga Stadium, in Homa Bay County for this year’s Genowa Governor's Cup on December 27, 2024. [PCS]

When President William Ruto got a rousing welcome during his last visit to Kisumu - the political bedroom of opposition leader Raila Odinga in November this year, pundits said the landscape had shifted.

They said the son of Sugoi had waved the magic wand and was using his newfound friendship with Raila to win back the region that voted against him to the last man in 2022. The Kenya Kwanza fraternity celebrated. Ruto’s senior advisors and spanners boys toasted the champagne.

For once, the political future looked bright for the first-term President whose two–year–old government had been punctured by massive protests mounted by angry Kenyans and the Gen-Z brigade.

Ruto appeared cornered and frustrated. A protest march to State House was in the offing. Then came Raila Amollo Odinga whose surprise handshake with the President stirred Kenya’s political scene. Nyanza became restless. The protests quickly fizzled out.

With the handshake, Ruto quickly formed a broad-based government, appointing five ODM stalwarts as Cabinet Secretaries. Former ODM chairman John Mbadi (National Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and SMEs), Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community and Regional Affairs), joined Ruto Cabinet. 

In reciprocation, President Ruto threw himself into Raila’s African Union Commission chairmanship’s campaign with gusto. He rallied senior government officials to back Raila. The political marriage began to blossom.

READ: Pres Ruto: 'Baba' will be the next AUC chairperson

Ruto, who has been Raila’s political rival for years, became a good man. The harsh, threatening words that greeted him when he attempted to campaign in Kisumu in 2022, suddenly turned into praise songs.

While visiting Kondele, Kisumu’s political hotbed two weeks ago in the company of ODM interim leader, Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o, President Ruto was thrilled as crowds sang: “Yote Yawezekana Bila Murima” (Everything is possible without the Mountain).

The message was that with Nyanza, Ruto does not need the mountain. The narrative suddenly changed with Raila and sections of the ODM brigade praising Ruto’s government. 

Raila’s surprise cooperation with President Ruto has now stirred a political debate as the former Prime Minister campaigns for the AU seat.

However, tough questions linger about Raila’s AU bid and how it will affect his political future. What will the AU win or loss mean to his political backyard? How will it affect his blossoming relationship with President Ruto and ODM?

Will Raila officially hand over his supporters to Ruto in the run-up to the 2027 elections if he wins the AU seat? Or will he nominate a successor to take on Ruto in his absence? What happens if he loses the AU seat? Will he return to spoil Ruto’s re-election plans?

Analysts and “wananchi” who spoke to The Sunday Standard say this is the elephant in the room. They say there was confusion and restlessness over what the Raila-Ruto friendship meant for the 2027 elections.

Although some top ODM leaders, especially those appointed to the Cabinet, have lately been praising President Ruto’s leadership, the 2027 presidential poll appears to be a hot potato.

ALSO READ: Raila Odinga's bold vision to transform Africa as AUC chair

Mr Mbadi, last week almost let the cat out of the bag but remained careful. Aware that the public was reading his lips while addressing a public meeting in Ndhiwa, he carefully skirted the subject.

“Mine is not to force people and chest thump that President Ruto should get another term. We are not in that debate as of now,” said Mbadi.

He added: “What I want is to work for him (Ruto), to make things work. Once we have corrected and made things work, we will come and tell Kenyans that we want you to give us another opportunity to continue working.”

However, Mbadi was earlier quoted in a section of the media hinting that he would support Ruto’s re-election.  “I will only be confused if Raila contests for the presidency in 2027,” he said.

Mbadi’s ambiguity resonates with views from some local politicians that Ruto may have to tread carefully on the Nyanza voting bloc. “President Ruto is seeking refuge in Nyanza and building an alternative voting bloc after falling out with parts of Mt Kenya. He wants to cash in on Raila’s assignments at the AU,” says ODM politician Ernest Okull.

He adds: “Raila and Ruto are friends now, but things will start happening from March next year after the AU contest. We pray that Raila wins the seat because things will fall apart if he loses. He will be back in full swing to vie for the presidency against Ruto.”

Vihiga Senator and ODM deputy leader Geoffrey Osotsi however says the party is not worried about the post-AU outcome. “Let all Kenyans know that we are not in government. We are firmly in the opposition and our leader Raila has not exited local politics. It is premature for anyone to imagine that someone can inherit his voting bloc in Nyanza,” says Osotsi.

Mr Osotsi cautioned Kenya Kwanza against behaving as if ODM strongholds in Nyanza and Western were up for grabs because Raila is going to the AU Commission.

“Politics is dynamic. President Ruto could be receiving a warm welcome today because of their friendship with Raila, but things may change. It is premature to make assumptions," he observes.

Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo says Raila’s bid for AU seat could break his relationship with President Ruto. “Woe unto Ruto if Raila doesn’t go to AU,” he says without elaborating.

Mr Maanzo feels President Ruto’s recent inroads into Nyanza may not mean much for his re-election bid. “President Ruto is just going to Nyanza to make promises. Nothing much. He should campaign for Raila in other countries instead of going to Nyanza.”

An ODM delegate from Kisumu, Josephat Ouma warns that President Ruto should prepare for a fallout with Raila if the latter fails to win the AU seat. “The friendship with Ruto will end on the date the results are announced if Baba (Raila) loses the contest,” says Ouma.

Policy analyst Phillip Ochieng’ says President Ruto will inherit Nyanza if Raila goes to Adis Ababa. “I doubt if Raila will turn his back on Ruto no matter the outcome of the AUC bid. Five Cabinet positions including energy and finance is a huge incentive for staying on,” says Mr Ochieng’.  

He says Raila may not enter the presidential race in 2027. "Because of his age, he would not want to place a huge gamble in the next elections. Consolidating ODM seems the most probable strategy and stretching the bargain for a Deputy Presidency and substantive seats after 2027 is safe for Raila," he says.  

According to Mr Ochieng’, a one-time political advisor to Kisumu’s first Governor, Jack Ranguma, the AU contest could mark the end of the Raila era in local politics. 

He said without a presidential candidate, Luoland could see the emergence of new political parties. “This will give Ruto the upper hand since all the new parties will want to identify with being in government,” says Ochieng’. 

But some analysts opine that Nyanza politics will never be the same again if Raila wins the AU seat. “I am sure Raila is going to Adis Ababa to work and live there from March next year. What he should do is anoint a successor who will contest the presidency on an ODM ticket,” says Michael Opiyo, a mechanic and member of Kisumu Bunge La Wenye Inchi. 

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but a senior ODM official said it was too early to start predicting what will happen in Nyanza in 2027. “What I know is that Baba (Raila) will continue to dictate major political happenings in Nyanza, Western, Coast and the Northern Kenya regions whether he goes to AU or not," said the official who did not want to be named. 

He added: “Whoever wants to inherit these regions will have to strike a deal with him because you can’t walk into his strongholds alone and takeover voters. It is a complicated matter. You never know. Baba has not officially retired from politics and may still want to contest for the presidency one more time.” 

ODM interim party leader Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o says the party remains firm, strong and united even as debate rages over the future of the party without Raila. He also denies claims that there was discontent in the party following the appointment of five senior members into the Ruto Government.

"Let there be no misunderstanding: ODM does not play second fiddle or trumpet the interests of any other political party. We remain a formidable force in shaping Kenya's political landscape, firmly rooted in our principles and ideology," he said in a statement.