Why Gachagua battles echo Raila Mau days

Baba Raila Odinga and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua are no political neophytes. Even in their lowest political moments, they take no prisoners.

In public podiums, they hardly bond. The last time they agreed on a key issue was when they defended the controversial ‘one man, one shilling’ revenue-sharing model.  

But what’s striking is their knack for reinvention—Mr. Odinga is now President William Ruto’s topmost ally, while Mr Gachagua wants to be ‘forgiven’ by the Kenyatta family.

The deputy president is remorseful that ‘we mistreated our son’ Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022.

Over the years, Mr Odinga has proved to have an inexhaustible bag of political schemes. Former UDA chief Cleophas Malala calls him Kenya’s only ‘professor’ of politics.

He is a man who hasn’t been president but wields immense power every other time.

On the other hand, Mr Gachagua is the first single-term MP to become deputy president. Known for his erratic speeches, he’s earned the nickname ‘truthful’ man. The former Mathira MP, his fans insist, is simply honest and forthright.

In politics, civility is not an issue. The DP once promised to set up traps at State House to prevent Mr Odinga from entering the bedroom to shake President Ruto’s hands.

He awfully failed and isn’t believing it. But it’s his belief that the government is a shareholding enterprise of tribes that has put him at odds with President Ruto’s inner circles.

Mr Gachagua has become an unwanted member of the Kenya Kwanza family.

Some leaders within from his backyard recently threw their lot with Interior CS Kithure Kindiki.

But others, like Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, long declared that ‘kama mbaya ni mbaya (If it’s bad so be it)’

Talk of impeachment is gathering steam. Signatures are being collected, and the DP has warned against it. He claims his allies are targeted over Gen Z protests which he blames on the NIS.

Last week in a TV interview, he spilled the beans. A censure motion followed. But at the funeral of Endarasha pupils in Nyeri on Thursday, his camp said ‘every action has a reaction’ in the end.  

The unfolding scenario around Mr Gachagua remind us of Prime Minister Odinga’s predicament between 2008 and 2012 in the grand coalition when he made conservation of the Mau Forest his pet project.

Rift Valley leaders then stirred emotions and rallied residents against his bid.

They claimed he was using Mau to seek international recognition. Ultimately, Mr Odinga became an enemy of the Kalenjin nation, while President Mwai Kibaki and his inner circles, who had tasked him with overseeing the Mau reclamation, emerged unscathed. Was it a trap?

The heat around Mr Gachagua parallel Raila’s struggles. Many who would benefit from a united Mt Kenya have turned against the DP.

Same way, those whose areas stood to gain from Mau recovery were Mr Odinga’s fiercest critics. For the DP, however, it’s not clear whether his stand is for self-preservation or something strategic.

Did anyone assign him to ‘protect’ Mt Kenya?

Likewise, those who backed the prime minister in his Mau crusade like Mr Musa Sirma and Mr Franklin Bett chickened out, save for Mr Margerer Langat, Mr Henry Kosgey and a few others. Even in Mt Kenya, the DP casts a lonely figure since allies who sang the ‘murima’ song have fled.

To cap it all, two scenarios stemmed more from perception rather than concrete realities. For Mr Gachagua, tension started after the Limuru Three meeting.

It’s all about 2027. For Mr Odinga, it was about Kibaki succession, nothing to do with Mau and the evictions.

Mr Odinga was vindicated but not before losing the Rift Valley vote in 2013. Mr Gachagua’s fate is uncertain for now depending on President Ruto’s game plan.

But since 2027 is far away, the DP should bury his resentment and ‘rain check’ his position. Three years to the polls is like eternity.

-The writer is a communications practitioner