Two theories that explain Kenya Kwanza's unfolding dirty games

President William Ruto during the launch of UDA manifesto.  [File, Standard]

Usituuzie uoga" (don't sell us fear) is the mantra echoing across our nation today. It reflects a growing sentiment among Kenyans who are weary of political manipulation and tired of being pawns in power struggles that offer little improvement to their daily lives. The emerging factionalism within the Kenya Kwanza government, between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, is a stark reminder of this reality, and it can be aptly analysed through the lenses of Game Theory and Elite Theory.

The top political elites of Kenya Kwanza united with shared interests, forming a coalition that was declared the winner of the 2022 General Election. This alliance promised unity and a cohesive national agenda. However, their inability to stick together has proven to be their Achilles' heel. The failure to run a common national agenda—fueled by the "shareholder narrative" that emphasises power distribution among some communities—suggests that their campaign lacked strong bonding values and a unifying vision. Instead, their primary goal was to gain power and share its privileges, including unfairly using authority to benefit their camps.

Every time these political elites and their allied business moguls encounter internal conflicts, they swiftly bring their disputes to the media, accusing each other of betrayal. Factions have emerged within the government, each spewing threats against the other in public forums. We've witnessed an increase in media presence from these groups, with each side releasing damaging information about their opponents. This spectacle indicates an elite group deeply divided. However, the divisions should not be at the expense of public interest.

The purpose behind this heightened media activity is clear: To strategically manipulate the masses and gain legitimacy for their conflicting factions. The settings are back to “mtu wetu.” Each faction attempts to sway public opinion in its favour, advancing its interests at the expense of genuine national progress.

This tactic aligns with Elite Theory, which posits that a small group of powerful individuals holds disproportionate power and often shapes public policies to serve their interests. The public, unfortunately, has limited direct control over these elite political figures. While the Constitution grants us the power to recall non-performing officials, the high threshold set to actualise this power poses a significant barrier. This underscores the theory's assertion that the masses have minimal influence over the elites who wield real power.

Game Theory offers another perspective, analysing the strategic interactions between the factions within the government. The ongoing factionalism is a zero-sum game, where one faction's gain is inherently another's loss. The attack, name, and shame approach these factions have taken against each other suggests they are engaged in a struggle devoid of cooperation, where victory for one side equates to defeat for the other.

For us, the public, this situation means that any negative consequences—such as economic shocks resulting from political instability—will hurt ordinary citizens the most. Lack of a clear Kenya Kwanza national strategy to improve our lives leads to intensified and rapidly changing political scenarios. This confusion disempowers us, making it more challenging to gather the courage to demand government accountability.

But we must not become submissive or buy into the fear being sold to us. Recognising the manipulation at play is the first step toward reclaiming our agency.

We have to fulfil our civic obligations by demanding accountability and transparency from our government without succumbing to fear—tusiuziwe uoga. We have to stay informed, question authority, and unite in our call for leaders to prioritise the nation's well-being over personal or factional gains.

Understanding the dynamics at play through Game Theory and Elite Theory allows us to see beyond the surface of political theatrics. It highlights the importance of active civic engagement and the need to demand that our leaders focus on policies that improve our lives.

Before 2027, the political space promises high drama through which we risk missing national priorities. The President and his deputy are ploughing in different directions yet we appreciate in politics parties metamorphosise into new entities. As they sort out their political differences ours is to ensure peace and development continue.

Dr Mokua is the executive director of Loyola Centre for Media and Communication