No easy road as Raila sets sights on Addis Ababa

Raila Odinga during his AUC bid launch at State House, Nairobi. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard]

The heavy lifting for Raila Odinga begins after the razzmatazz over his campaign for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship ended with the endorsement from regional leaders an event that was hosted by President William Ruto.

For Raila to clinch the coveted position he needs 2/3 of the 55 countries that will vote for Moussa Faki’s successor but geo politics  language and religion  by the member states will play a key role in who wins next year’s elections. However, 6 members have been suspended because of either war or hostile takeovers in government. These are: Sudan, Gabon, Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea. These means Raila needs at least 33 votes to succeed Moussa Faki as the CEO.

Although there are claims that over 20 countries have supported Raila, he should not sit pretty because during the former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration, Kenya had been told that more than 50 countries had committed to support then Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohammed only to lose to Faki when the votes were cast. Instructively it is some EAC members including Uganda and Tanzania that did not support Amina’s bid.

International affairs commentators argue that Kenya must evaluate what went wrong and seek to correct the mistakes before embarking on an assignment that may end up embarrassing the country yet again.

“Kenya must this time round up its grasp of regional and especially neighbours and continental relations, interests and behaviours,” warns  Prof Peter Kagwanja. While President William Ruto has been pushing to have Raila as the sole candidate for the East Africa Community (EAC) Djibouti and Mauritius and Madagascar have candidates in the race. 

Raila will face off with Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf as well as Anil Kumarsingh Gayan from Mauritius and Richard Randriamandrato from Madagascar. Several factors will come into play as the campaigns heat up. Religion, age, the anglo and francophone divide, Western influence and the emerging forces in the continent such as Russia and China are some of the elements that may tilt the scale in the election.

Kagwanja noted that while the Anglophone (English speaking) and Francophone (French speaking) factors may influence the next AUC chairperson, the elections also amount to a clash of generations.

He noted that Djibouti is the guarantor for Ethiopia for the country to access the sea facilitating 90 per cent of its international trade by volume the ties that makes it hard for Ethiopia to abandon Djibouti, citing as another tough battle ahead of Raila.

“Africa is headed for a titanic “Clash of Generations” amid a continent-wide Youth Revolution, Sahelian coups, Senegalese election and Kenyan Gen Z Revolt.

Contest for AUC Chairperson seat by Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf (58) and Kenya’s Raila Odinga (80) dramatise this clash,” he noted. He said Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti, are Arab-speaking members of the League of Arab States and the Organization Islamic Cooperation (OIC) as is the entire North Africa region of 17 countries.

Eastern Africa is also faced with the Anglophone - Francophone divide where Mauritius Djibouti and Madagascar are Francophone as are other 17 countries in the Eastern, Western, Northern and Central Africa.

Lawyer  Evans Oganda noted those in Raila’s team must be alive to the influence of the French given the unrest in France.

“The French are reeling from the losses in the Sahel. Domestically, Macron went to show the French public that we are not losing our jewels around the world. There’s been unrest in Caledonia, Martinique, the Sahel, and the new young leaders are coming in.

“Macron went to settle this so that they have somebody who will be friendly to French interests. So, anybody who is organising Mr Odinga’s candidature has to be alive to the influence of the French.”

Then another key player in all this is Vladimir Putin and the Russians. They have heavily invested in the Sahel. They are actively protecting those co-regimes in that belt. You cannot secure the support of these countries in the Sahel, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, without talking to Vladimir Putin,” Oganda noted.

But he said there was a need for Kenya to come up with a strategy on how to approach diplomacy with other countries pointing out some mishaps such as Kenya’s relations with China and America that puts the country in awkward positions.

“We have Kenya coming in and being assigned some status, a non-NATO ally, and that comes with a lot of strings attached. How are we going to sit with China on the table and convince China to look at us favourably? How are we going to convince emerging resurgent powers? Currently, the globe is undergoing global power calibration,” he noted.

Aware that Africa is divided along the language lines, Raila while presenting his case at State House on Tuesday said he would unite the continent along the Africophones.

“We don’t want Africans to be divided as Anglophones, Francophones, Lusophones. I want them to be Africophones. From the hills of Kenya to the deserts of Sahara and the Kalahari, from the lakes of Great Rift to the rainforests of Central Africa, from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic, Africans must be one in the resilience and hope for a bright future transmitted to our young people,” he said.

However, Dr. Duncan Ojwang, an International law lecturer, noted Kenya is at a golden age for foreign policy refuting claims that the dynamics of francophone might not play exactly this time because of that arrangement.

“Raila becomes the candidate officially launched by the East African Presidents and taken over by the East African Community. I think that Kenya plays a role, if you look at Kenya hosting the UN in Africa, the only country that hosts a lot of UN offices, you see Kenya’s relationship with the EU.” He added.

Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Singoei said already Raila has a backing of Francophone countries such as Cote D’IVoire and Senegal owing to his past diplomatic engagements such as the peace initiatives.

“Raila has a backing of Cote D’IVoire where he mediated the post electoral challenges and has also done some work in Senegal where he has allies including the current leadership, he also has a personal relation with DRC which is also a Francophone country,” Singoei noted.

In April this year, Angola, a Lusophone country through its ambassador to Kenya Sianga Abilio committed to support Raila’s bid.

The ambassador said the Southern African nation would not “let Kenya down”, the strongest suggestion that they would back Raila’s bid.

“Angola is aware and is working on that issue (Raila’s candidacy) and will not let Kenya, as a brother, down,” said Mr Abilio.