Living the enigma moniker? Raila Odinga's undisputed dominance

Azimio leader Raila Odinga and his wife Ida Odinga dance at a Nairobi hotel on August 24, 2024, during celebrations to mark his wife`s  74th birthday. [Collins Kweyu, Standard]

As ODM leader Raila Odinga exits the country’s political scene to concentrate on his African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship bid, observers argue that he has lived up to his billing as an enigma in Kenya’s politics.

Described as an enigma in the country’s politics 18 years ago by Nigerian lecturer Babafemi Badejo, Raila has appeared to live the portrait of a man who continues to confound friend and foe today.

In the 2006 biography; Raila Odinga: An Enigma in Kenyan Politics, author Badejo gave a view of the country's politics and critical events for nearly 60 years tracing Raila’s role in it.

By exiting the local political scene, the question is whether Raila was in essence nearing a turning point as an opposition leader and what will be the trajectory of his political future, especially if he flops in the AUC bid.

Some observers believe that Raila's announcement was a decoy meant to divert people’s attention as he is expected to challenge the government over many issues affecting citizens.

A political commentator and a public policy analyst, Kimani wa Kimani, advanced the view that “Raila cannot exit the local political scene as he has already planted his trusted men in the Ruto administration. He cannot keep bashing the regime,” he said and added, “Raila wants to lift the burden of criticizing the government from his shoulders now that he is part of it. He wants to shift it to other leaders. This is sheer conmanship and Kenyans should expect him to bounce back in case he flops in his AUC bid.”

Professor Gitile Naituli observed that Raila's imminent exit from the political scene would provide an opportunity for others equal to leading the opposition.

"Especially in Nyanza region, his political bedrock, new leaders will likely emerge and fill the gap. Luo Nyanza has some of the best leaders who can step in and transform this country," Naituli said.

The professor of management and leadership, also concurs that Raila is a cunning politician who keeps his cards close to his chest.

"History is replete with instances where Raila has caught his foes and friends flatfooted. This makes it difficult to predict his political future, especially if he fails at the continental job bid," he said.

Naituli added, “Raila has perfected the art of being visible and invisible simultaneously. This makes it easier for him to pull a surprise in the political area. As for now, he wants the government to support his bid for the AU job as he weighs his options as events unfold."

Raila became his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s political heir, rather by force since Oginga had preferred his first Vice Chairman Michael Kijana Wamalwa. He entered elective politics in 1992 as MP for Langata Constituency, which he represented for 20 years.

For the past three decades, the country’s political campaigns for the presidency have been centred around what former Vice President Michael Kijana Wamalwa described as Raila phobia and Raila mania. Wamalwa stated that those who adore Raila do so with passion, while those who hate him do so with similar intensity.

This mantra has been the predominant factor shaping the country’s political landscape in the past four presidential elections.

Former assistant minister and veteran politician Koigi wa Wamwere told The Standard that Raila phobia had been used as a political tool in the Mt Kenya region. Leaders demonised the leader to increase voter turnout in presidential elections.

The former Subukia MP said the opposition leader exploited the 'Raila mania' element to mobilize ethnic support base and other friendly communities to a formidable political machine that intimidates any president elected to office and forces him to accommodate him into government.

Though the presidency, the ultimate political crown, has eluded him in five presidential elections, Raila has proved himself as a tireless candidate with good mobilization and organizational skills. Despite losing in five presidential elections, Raila has kept reinventing himself and rising to the upper echelon of power in four successive governments, making him the key political figure in Kenya's modern political life.

Many Kenyans were surprised by the recent rapprochement between Raila and President William Ruto, which led to the appointment of his lieutenants to cabinet.

The latest working relationship with the president has catapulted Raila to the centre of the country’s power politics. This has seen senior government officers trooping to his Capitol Hill office for consultations.

President Ruto will unveil the government-backed Raila Odinga AUC bid tomorrow, which further enhances and consolidates their political pact.

“Raila, through the use of negative ethnicity, has managed to unleash terror on any government in power," said Koigi. He did this to former president Daniel Arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, who all accommodated him in the government, Koigi said.

 In numerous incidents, the former Subukia MP added that Raila had betrayed those he was involved with in the cause once the government dangles a carrot to him.

"He once told me I could not get rich because of my blind loyalty to the government," said Koigi.

This was during the Narc administration. "He advised me to attack the government so that the big man could call me. I found the advice astonishing," recalled Koigi

Interviews with leaders and political actors who have had a close working relationship with Raila paint a picture of a man with many faces. He has metamorphosed over the past four decades from a political activist and street protester advocating for human rights and democracy, a tribal chieftain, a vicious government critic and bully, to an acceptable and accomplished national leader and a pan-Africanist.

A former nominated senator Arnold Kipchumba, attributed Raila’s success to his “energy and capacity to build and sustain a critical mass support base, which no president in power can ignore.” “In any presidential contest, Raila has lost with a slight margin of slightly over 200,000 votes. Given that our country is highly polarized along ethnic lines, which manifests themselves in presidential election results, it behooves any president to reach out to Raila to stabilise the country and restore the people's confidence in the government,” he stated.

Njenga Mungai, former Molo MP said Kenyans had misunderstood the opposition leader for a long time due to tribalism and propaganda peddled out by his opponents.