Why Kalonzo won't follow Munya, Karua to bolt out of Azimio

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka during a past interview. [File, Standard]

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka can not afford to bolt out of the troubled Azimio la Umoja One Kenya even after some acts of betrayal by some co-principals. 

While the disgruntled Azimio members have announced plans to exit from the coalition over the alleged betrayal by Raila Odinga over his deal with President William Ruto, Kalonzo has no plans to bolt out.

Already, Azimio deputy leader and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and Party of National Unity (PNU) leader Peter Munya have separately issued notices to exit from the opposition coalition party following ODM’s decision to work with the Kenya Kwanza administration by donating four Cabinet Secretary nominees.

The Cabinet nominees are ODM national chairman and Nominated MP John Mbadi (Treasury), National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho and ODM deputy party leader (Mining and Blue Economy) and former Kakamega Governor and ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs)

Aggrieved by the newly found unity between the government and ODM which is an affiliate party of Azimio, Narc Kenya acting secretary general Asha Bashir in a letter dated July 25 cited “prevailing political developments” as one of the reasons for the party’s imminent exit from the opposition coalition.

“Kindly take note that our stay in Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is not tenable due to the prevailing political developments,” said the Narc-Kenya Secretary General.

“As Narc Kenya by way of this letter, we are giving notice to exit the coalition as stipulated in the exit clause (s) in the Coalition Agreement. This notice is effective from the date of this letter.”

Munya followed suit and accused Raila of fence-sitting, maintaining that he could not be in government and at the same time in the opposition.

“They (ODM) have said they want to be in the government and for some of us who want to be in the opposition, we must bolt out so that we can continue fighting for the people of Kenya,” he said.

However, Kalonzo who has only asked the Wiper lawmakers to reject the ODM nominees during the National Assembly has not issued any intention to leave the party.

He also argued that as a principal in Azimio, he was not consulted before the Cabinet nominations, yet Wandayi, is the Minority Whip in the National Assembly.

Political experts said one of the main reasons Wiper can’t bolt out of the Azimio was because it was the biggest beneficiary of the parliamentary slots thanks to the sharing of position documents in the agreement recognized by law.

The Opposition coalition has 150 MPs: ODM (86) Jubilee (28) Wiper (26) DAP-K (5) and Kanu (5) with Charles Njoroge, a political analyst noting that should Wiper bolt out, it would be denied its parliamentary positions which would be shared by the second largest party in Azimio.

“MP Robert Mbui (Kathiani) of Wiper holds the Deputy Minority leader position in the National Assembly in trust of the Azimio coalition party which is the same case with Kitui Senator Enock Wambua who was selected by the Azimio to occupy the Deputy Minority leader in Senate, if they were to leave the Azimio, the positions would fall vacant which would be a gain to ODM,” he said.

Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni concurred with Njoroge saying that his party got the Deputy Minority Whip courtesy of the Azimio as a coalition plus other county assembly positions like in Nairobi.

“It’s a delicate balance for us because the coalition gave our party political strength, especially in Parliament. Our party got the positions on the strength of the coalition and that is why we are evaluating the gains and the risks,” he said.

Kioni argued that Azimio is a legal entity and should constituent party members opt to leave the decision will have ‘heavier legal obligations to their MPs and may cause them to be thrown out of Parliament and seek a fresh mandate to the people.

“That is why it is easier for parties without representation in Parliament to exit from the coalition, but as for us, the Azimio is intact and those who may want to leave are at liberty to do so,” he said.

He said unlike former political formations such as the National Super Alliance (Nasa) and Coalition of Reforms and Democracy (Cord), Azimio was an institution created by a legal instrument which could have far-reaching consequences for all the   

Wiper Deputy Secretary General and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo in an interview with The Standard said the party will not bolt out of Azimio even as he described the broad-based government as ‘the broad-based dictatorship’ while at the same time dismissing the move by Narc Kenya and PNU to bolt out of Azimio.

“It is of no consequence for PNU and Narc Kenya to leave the Azimio coalition because they don't even have parliamentary positions. We can’t pull out because Azimio is the official Opposition party which is registered in all the relevant state agencies," he said.

Political Parties Registrar Ann Nderitu told The Standard that the process of exiting a coalition starts by issuing a three-month notice but it is not automatic that the coalition will approve the proposal by a member political party especially if the party has liabilities.

“If the coalition has no objection, then it gives a nod by way of writing and if the party has some liabilities, it is instructed to clear it before leaving. But once a party bolts out of the coalition it can’t continue enjoying the benefits of the coalitions,” she said.

Nderitu said some of the benefits of a coalition included political mobilisation, stronger voice and building consensus for a bigger group of citizens while in the individual parties, building consensus takes time ‘although an individual party has internal freedom and democracy.

Another reason why Kalonzo may not lead his troops out of Azimio was because the coalition gave him a platform to present himself as a national official opposition leader.

"Kalonzo is in a better position to hold the government  to account in the Azimio coalition than as the Wiper leader and for this reason Azimio will not break but it will be a marriage of mistrust and quarrels," Njoroge said.