Is Kalonzo finding his voice or is he the perennial ditherer?

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka addressing mourners during the burial service of the late Henry Ongoma Oparanya at Emabole primary school, Butere Sub country in Kakamega county on July 13, 2024. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

The last photo was meant to be the most profound.

At the steps of the iconic Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), the men who had forged a new partnership would show off their unity.

One cog, the person who had co-chaired the dialogue between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, was conspicuously missing.

Moments earlier that Tuesday morning, Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka had brandished his copy of the newly amended Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act.

They would capture the moment, which those present called historic, with a photo session, before retreating into the backrooms for consultations.

But there were signs that President Ruto, under immense fire from youthful Kenyans and desperate for some backup, would fail to present a united front from the political class.

He had assembled Raila, Kalonzo and their allies on neutral grounds, KICC, to earn their approval. The Head of State mostly got Raila's. Not so much Kalonzo's, who launched an offensive against Ruto when he was called to the podium.

The former vice president would call out the government's non-commitment to addressing the cost of living, its heavy-handed response to peaceful protesters and the portrait of fear it had painted with the deployment of police officers and military personnel to quell protests.

"If we are not careful we will all be thrown out by the Gen Zs," came the sobering warning shot that must have rattled Ruto.

Raila would take the cue from his Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya co-principal, calling out excesses, even though he eventually agreed to dialogue with the President, amid talk that the two may be forging a political partnership.

In the wake of a Generation Z backlash that met Ruto's and Raila's announcement of week-long talks next week, Kalonzo would openly abandon his coalition partner and the President.

"Read the mood of the people. Kenya's Gen Z have set the standard and are demanding ACTION... The Gen Z revolution is a result of Ruto's INACTION," the Wiper leader posted on his social media handles on Tuesday.

A day later, he struck harder, rejecting the prospect of talks.

"Kenyans want ACTION NOT DIALOGUE. I'll tell Raila Odinga the same when we meet as Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party. We cannot be seen to be sanitizing this Ruto regime," he said.

Belgut lawmaker Nelson Koech faulted the double standards that led Kalonzo into opposing the proposed dialogue while he had led the previous round of talks.

Kalonzo's message, although in tune with the demands of Gen Z and Millennial protesters of action and not dialogue, contradicted an earlier position by the Wiper leader.

At the KICC, he had said the country needed to "go back to Bomas" in talks that would bring the youth and other stakeholders to the table.

The veteran politician is infamous for dithering on several issues, earning the reference "watermelon", which originated from Raila, during the 2010 constitutional referendum campaign. 

Since then, the Wiper Leader has wavered several times. In 2012, he pulled a fast one on the G7 Alliance, which had him, Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta as co-principals, and opted to support Raila's presidential bid.

A decade later, after vowing not to support the former prime minister's fifth stab and launching his presidential bid, Kalonzo would make a U-turn, endorsing Raila for the presidency.

The former premier's anticipated retirement from local politics as he pursues a continental role has had Kalonzo dreaming of leading the opposition. Indeed, he has emerged from Raila's shadow to be a force by himself.

Many observers view him as the strongest successor to Raila in Azimio ahead of the coalition's deputy leader Martha Karua, winning more flankers during his press addresses.

In recent months, the former vice president has consistently hit out at Ruto, a move that has helped shape the 2027 presidential contest into one between the pair.

He has continuously issued hard-hitting statements highlighting Ruto's blunders, culminating in Tuesday's dressing down of the Kenya Kwanza administration.

He has also supported attacks on the Head of State by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who Kalonzo said the opposition would save if an impeachment motion against the DP would be filed in Parliament.

Similarly, he has recently fought in the Gen Z corner, retweeting the hashtag Ruto Must Go, joining calls for the president's resignation.

Leadership and management professor Gitile Naituli, a member of Azimio's think tank, observed that Kalonzo was finally "finding his voice".

"He can be a formidable force if he does not compromise. As things stand, the Gen Zs cannot run a credible presidential campaign and Kalonzo is ideal because he has the Mwai Kibaki mien," said Prof Naituli.

"He appears soft like Kibaki and after experiencing Uhuru and Ruto, Kenyans may want someone who does not threaten or intimidate like Kalonzo," he added.

But diplomatic history professor Macharia Munene argued that Kalonzo's new-found defiance was an act of desperation.

"He is desperate like Raila. They wish they were the ones who mobilised the current movement. They have tried before but never came close to what we witnessed with the Gen Zs. He is still a watermelon because he goes wherever the wind blows," said Prof Munene.