Which way? Raila AUC bid leaves Azimio allies in deep confusion

A behind-the-scenes race to replace him is gathering momentum and has started glaring out in public even as disquiet and elements of mistrust begin to hover around his coalition.

And even though both Raila and his allies have downplayed succession wars within his camp, a political tug-of-war and several uncertainties have hit the opposition leadership apex.

Big shoes

From some of his allies declaring to have the mettle to fill his shoes, his closest circles and family members singing different tunes in the succession race and alleged disquiet over the return of some Azimio leaders into the succession fray, a long supremacy campaign is in the offing.

On Wednesday, Raila's decision to announce that he is not going anywhere only added to the confusion in the coalition and threw Azimio principals who were hoping for his endorsement off-track.

According to analysts, the entire country is in a state of confusion because of the ODM chief's secret political cards that has implications on the future of the opposition.

"He is giving multiple signals. This equivocation is not good for him, or even his troops. Indeed, it is not even good for the government that is campaigning for him," argues communication consultant Barrack Muluka.

"Raila needs to take a firm decision, burn his boats and go," he adds.

Lawyer Joshua Nyamori believes that Raila is sending mixed signals about his transition and has kept the country guessing about his political cards.

"The entire country received his appointment with a lot of excitement knowing that he would cede local politics and move to the continental level and allow the country to also transit," he says.

Yesterday, several Azimio insiders admitted that the coalition is in a state of confusion but are hoping that the ODM leader will provide direction when the time is right.

They claim a number of activities that the opposition is pursuing including following up on the implementation of the National Dialogue Committee report depends on leadership certainties.

"It all depends on whether former president Uhuru Kenyatta is also backing Raila's candidature for AU. If there is a sense that he has isolated himself, then there is a likelihood, we will choose those who back Raila's AU candidature," said an ODM insider.

In ODM, confusion also lingers over his potential successor who can steer the party and maintain its strong influence across the country.

AU position

Last week, the party's Secretary General Edwin Sifuna dismissed claims that there is jostling to replace Raila. "May it go on record that Raila, in seeking the AU position, has not made any pronouncements regarding his local political future, and remains the party leader of ODM," said Sifuna.

However, in the same week, Raila's wife Ida Odinga hinted at the possibility of ODM chairman John Mbadi having the mettle to succeed the seasoned politician.

"Baba, as he goes to AU has mentored, many to take care of what he has left behind. Mbadi after all these years of mentorship do you still need more training? Should I continue?

"That's Baba's heartbeat," said Ida during an event in Suba.

In the party, Minority leader in the National Assembly Opiyo Wandayi, who has been leading the party's grassroots mobilization is also hoping to fill Raila's big shoes.

The list also includes Kisii governor Simba Arati, former governors Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega) and Joho (Mombasa).

A number of Raila's allies, however, have dismissed claims the opposition is in a state of confusion and claimed that they have structures in place to handle everything.

According to MPs Tom Odege (Nyatike) and Paul Abuor (Nyatike), there is still time for the opposition to plan on succession.

"There is no need to panic," Odege says.

Abuor, however, argues that Raila will only take a sabbatical leave, should he clinch the AU job.

Observers, on the other hand, paint gloom for the opposition and believe that the changing political dimensions in the country have cast a cloud of doubt on the opposition.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says the opposition is at a crossroads road.

"Opposition has party leaders like Kalonzo, Eugene, Karua who should ordinarily not find it hard to do what Raila does with his assured blessing. They simply need to put in the work ethic that Raila has," Bichachi says.

"This keeps people guessing on his next move. Raila is keeping his cards close to his chest and that is why he saying he is not quitting," Odeny says.

He opines that Raila still needs the clout of the opposition head to negotiate with the government to back his candidature for the AU Commission chairman seat.

Additional reporting by Anne Atieno