Ruto is good at political plotting, but he seems to flounder on governance

Although Ruto is good at political plotting, what he calls kujipanga, he gives the impression of floundering in the art of governance.

He showed his kujipanga prowess as Cyrus Jirongo's mtu wa mkono in YK 1992 while campaigning to keep President Daniel are Moi in power. He was a junior player in YK but his seniors, it appeared, he had other motives, and Moi knew it. Among Moi's first actions on being declared the winner, therefore, was to destroy YK 92.

Caught in that political destruction, Ruto regrouped and took revenge on the president by dethroning Moi's friend Reuben Chesire in Eldoret, making it clear that Moi could not ignore him. After Moi appointed him minister, he became a strong voice against Mwai Kibaki's growing political strength.

If Moi was to retire, he argued, Moi's age mates, meaning Kibaki and Simeon Nyachae should equally retire and leave the presidency to the dot.coms, meaning Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, and himself.

In the 2002 dot.coms lost, Moi was the big loser as national and even Kalenjin leader but Ruto was the long-term winner. Subsequently, especially in the 2005 Orange and Banana referendum campaign that brought Raila, Uhuru, and Ruto together, Ruto replaced Moi as the man for the Kalenjins.

He and Mudavadi tested presidential fortunes in 2007 by challenging Raila's nomination as the ODM presidential flag-bearer after which they became top 'Pentagon' commanders in Raila's political army. Ruto was Raila's most effective field commander.

He thereafter had to contend with the aftermath of electoral violence which landed him, along with Uhuru, at The Hague while his boss, Raila, escaped blame. Uhuru and Ruto then teamed up and successfully played the anti-imperial card to beat Raila, the favourite of the West, in the 2013 election. In defeat, Raila sought to destabilise the Uhuru government.

Since 2013, the three men have dominated Kenyan politics and alternate between friendship and enmity. Each is extremely rich, has dictatorial traits, looks after close relatives and friends through selective public appointments, and tries to outwit the other two by temporarily joining one against the other.

In success, Uhuru and Ruto split and led to fresh dispensations. The anti-Ruto, Uhuru-Raila 'handshake' made Uhuru lose image by looking like Raila's surrogate. While Uhuru's explanation that he could get 'peace' only by accommodating Raila lacked conviction, Raila lost by being politically cocky, and Ruto played victim of ungrateful former allies. He outsmarted Uhuru and Raila in 2022.

Ruto's victory unleashed new realignments, fears, and confusion. Seeking world recognition and approval, symbolised by the Climate Change Summit, like Raila, Ruto craves for 'saviour' image only to appear beholden to external forces.

In addition, Raila's Maandamano, making Kenya ungovernable forced Ruto to discuss changing the law which threatens Gachagua's sense of political peace. Ruto tries to balance Gachagua's survival instincts with containing Raila's disruptive capacity. His mtajua hamjui (you will know you don't know) appears to threaten all.

He undermines his appointees through demeaning public comments, gives the country a bad image, and weakens his local, continental, and global standing. Ruto still has time to develop a grand strategy, remove policy contradictions, and assure Kenyans he is neither vindictive nor confused.