Why Kenya now needs to exhale

Whitney Houston. [Coutesy]

Whitney Houston was a famous African-American musician who died young but her lyrics linger.

One of her famous songs is "Waiting to Exhale." It was a soundtrack for a movie by the same name and composed by a musician of the same background, Babyface (Kenneth Edmonds).

I got a good rapport with African Americans, who prefer that name to black Americans. I lived among them in the Deep South, schooled with them and taught them.

If you keenly listen to me talking, you should notice my southern drawl. The stereotype that all African Americans are either musicians, actors or basketball players is not supported by facts.

I can add confidently that if you have not visited the US Deep South, you should not say you have been to America.

One line in the song is poignant "For every win, someone must fail. But there comes a point when we exhale." Last year, someone won in the polls and by extension, someone failed. We have come to the point when we must exhale, both as winners and non-winners (not losers).

In the movie, Whitney and three other ladies were having a good time with married men waiting for them to divorce their wives and marry them.

You can see and feel why they were waiting to exhale...

Who in 2022 was waiting to exhale? There are four exhalers. The two presidential contenders and their followers, the hustlers, the affluent and the international community (investors and diplomats). You can add to the list.

The 2022 poll winner exhaled partly. He exhaled politically but not economically. It was a big sigh of relief.

The speeches and the actions after the win left no doubt it was a long wait. More so if you add the dynasty factor.

Economically, the winners are still waiting to exhale. They have debts, joblessness, and inflation and are yet to make us "feel good" about ourselves and the country.

They told us we would exhale economically in a year, but the day to exhale keeps shifting. They blame the former regime for postponing economic exhalation.

The losers are exhaling through demos. Their attempt to exhale through courts became hot air. In the Uhuru Kenyatta regime, the losers exhaled through handshakes.

Political reality

Some have suggested that if they faced the political reality head-on, they would exhale sooner. The winners know if demos fail, they can now exhale politically.

Have the losers (sorry, non-winners) fired their last political bullet? What of the affluent? They exhaled when polls were peaceful. They feared that a political victory for hustlers would lead to the loss of their economic power.

This group is exhaling slowly. They fear their loss of economic power will be a slow puncture. Are they as indispensable as the South African economic elites after apartheid?

Some argue their hold on the dollar and refusal to buy bonds (lend the government money) signals they still have economic clout.

Rattling this group would rattle the whole economy and postpone the exhaling of the next group, the hustlers. The two groups are tied at the hip; in economic-speak, bottom-up economics and trickledown economics are two sides of the same coin.

No group waited to exhale more than the hustlers, the downtrodden. They were the political fodder in the 2022 polls. They thought that a political victory for their leaders would usher in the economic golden age.

Ravaged by inequality, joblessness and the high cost of living, they waited to exhale. They exhaled politically when their leader won. Economically, like their affluent elites, they are waiting to exhale.

The last group that waited to exhale was foreign investors and the diplomatic community. Think of all the big firms that have invested in Kenya.

Think of the fear that Kenya could go the wrong way like the countries in the arc of instability from DR Congo through Sudan to Ethiopia and Somalia.

On this, they totally exhaled politically. Kenya is unlikely to go through civil strife beyond maandamano which is another way of exhaling. Economically, this group is breathing normally with some dust in the air.

After exhaling, we continue breathing! Each group will breathe normally, but masks are allowed. The winners are coming to the reality that turning the economy around is not as easy as voting and takes time.

They are betting on shock therapy through taxes and hope that by 2027 we shall exhale with the joy of an economic turnaround.

The losers are hoping that by pointing out the soft underbelly of the winners (the economy), they will exhale in 2027 with a political victory.

The hustlers and affluent are breathing at the same rate, hoping that painful economic reforms will make them exhale with higher economic growth, lower cost of living and happiness.

Foreign investors

The hustlers are now too aware that a quantum leap into affluence is an illusion, was always an illusion unless through violence and its cousin - corruption.

Foreign investors and diplomats can breathe easy watching us resolve our internal contradictions.

For individuals, there are possible breathing difficulties; personal freedom and upward mobility could be curtailed after the two political contestants have exhaled.

Once demos are tamed, some say a cloud of fear like tear gas will engulf the 60-year-old nation. I hope that is a bad dream.

This could slow the economic breathing of the two socio-economic classes (the affluent and hustlers). That will be reflected in the economic growth data.

The two groups must dance together economically. Whether it's tango or mugithi is subject to confirmation.

Our leaders should make us breathe normally. The ghost of Covid-19 oxygen is still fresh in our minds. Did you exhale after the 2022 polls? Or you are still waiting to exhale? Talk to us.