Wamalwa's push for Luhya unity put wedge between him and President Ruto

He dismissed those calling for Luhya unity "as political brokers who want to auction the community to the highest bidder". Mudavadi and Wetang'ula had snubbed the Luhya Unity meeting at Bukhungu stadium on December 31, 2021.

Today, Wetang'ula is the National Assembly Speaker and Mudavadi is Prime Cabinet Secretary in the Kenya Kwanza government that brings together United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Amani National Congress (ANC), FORD-Kenya and other small political parties. More poignantly, however, Western is seen as an opposition bastion.

"Ruto believes by having Wetang'ula and Mudavadi in his corner, he has secured the Luhya vote, but a surprise awaits him in 2027. I will not be party to using the Luhya to extend the rule of shareholders in Kenya. I will contest the presidency. He must know that the Luhya have other sons and political parties that will participate in the 2027 General Election. No one is going to pocket the Luhya " Wamalwa says.

Ruto will no doubt try a second stab at the presidency in 2027 and will not brook any challenge within Kenya Kwanza. Mudavadi and Wetang'ula could easily mount one, but the two are unlikely to upset the status quo, having publicly said they will support Ruto all the way and bide their time for 2032.

At a January 2023 meeting with Western Council of Elders officials in Busia, Mudavadi said, "I want to tell you this, don't be cheated. Ruto will not be the person to be defeated in 2027". He expressed similar sentiments at Kidundu Stadium, Vihiga in December 2022.

"Mudavadi and Wetang'ula won't challenge Ruto in 2027. You have no doubt seen memes on social media that say 'bora wameshiba'. That is the case," says former Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu who believes Luhya unity would work in Ruto's favour.

"It will be in Ruto's interest if the Luhya community was united and voted for him as a block under Mudavadi and Wetang'ula," he says.

Eseli says Luhya community has the numbers, but high poverty levels and voter suppression have always denied it its voice during presidential elections.

"The largest majority of Shakahola victims are from western, and that is because of poverty. Successive administrations have resorted to political suppression through buying of voter IDs and selective issuance of national identity cards, which bars most people in western from registering as voters in large numbers. How do you explain the fact that Kanduyi constituency has 400,000 eligible voters, but only 120,000 have been registered," he asks.

There is no better opportunity than the one presented by Mudavadi and Wetang'ula occupying senior positions in the government under the same political coalition to drum up support for Luhya unity. Bungoma, Wetangula's home turf and Vihiga, Mudavadi's home turf are the most populous of the 17 Luhya tribes and have consistently voted for opposing sides in previous elections.

The deaths of Nzoia Sugar, Mumias Sugar Company and the Pan Paper Mills in Webuye and the laid-back attitude of Luhya leaders towards their revival have disillusioned the Luhya rank and file.

It remains to be seen whether Luhya unity will work for or against Ruto. Political analyst Kennedy Echesa believes Ruto can't risk having all his eggs in one basket. "Ruto is looking at western as an alternative reliable voting bloc to Central Kenya."

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