Ruto gets into his stride as Raila stumbles after early missteps in the war of attrition

President Ruto's initial efforts to clean up his predecessor's mess was as hard a task as that of Hercules, the man who after 30 years cleaned King Augeas's stables. For example, there is fear that individuals may have indeed pocketed more than Sh4 trillion of the country's Sh9.39 trillion debt (as of March this year). In such a condition, you would expect opposition leader Raila Odinga to be rubbing his hands in glee, as the man he refused to accept his election victory or recognize his presidency ran into problems right out of the gate. The new corruption scandals that have hit Ruto's nascent government should have added to Raila's schadenfreude.

But, Raila is neither overjoyed, nor is he nearer to his goal of delegitimizing Ruto's rule. Worse, President Ruto, who so far hasn't buckled under the weight of the country's myriad crises, is plowing ahead with his agenda, The Plan. Why is Raila, even after going as far as threatening to split the country in two, so unsuccessful to have his way and Ruto still so lucky to stand his ground and possibly set to win?

The answer could lie in the difference between Ruto's survival strategy that combined both offensive and defensive strategies and Raila's reactive tactics that garnered more media coverage, but did little to compel Ruto to share power as the last two former presidents did.
After months of Raila-led protestations, Ruto isn't only standing, he has a real chance of once again outsmarting the opposition, even as problems pile up nationally. Into his first year now, Ruto still has four more years on his side to correct things.

Already, there's a sense of relief, if shaky, in Ruto's camp that the best is yet to come.
In recent months, Ruto has been more relaxed in his public appearances, particularly more confident than he was a couple of months ago when he wore an angular look and pinched face. He recently admitted that he had gone back into the gym after two years of rigorous election campaigns disrupted his timetable.

New allies

Politically, Ruto is winning new allies, as many opposition members have decamped to his side. Internationally, he's made waves with his anti-imperial, pan-African speeches, the latest being his Friday address on climate change and financing at the Champs de Mars, Paris, France that was interrupted by a sustained eruption of applause from his audience before he could even finish his greetings.

At least to his supporters, the scathing lead stories in national newspapers and on TV stations are good omens that Ruto is trying to reform a system that has been badly broken by his predecessor and made worse by outside forces, such as the war in Ukraine that triggered global food crisis. There's some truth to this argument. The rising cost-of-living pain, for instance, is not limited to Kenya.

Migori brige blocked by Azimio supporters who are protesting the High cost of living on May 2, 2023. [Caleb Kingwara, Standard]

All but two of them found their way into the ever-changing demands of Raila's irreducible minimums, raising questions about Raila's real strategy, if any, in confronting the ever more live wire Ruto. With no clarity on the end game of his anti-Ruto crusade, Raila's agitation now seems to have fallen into some sort of a trap that the new administration would be very much happy to see him entangle in day in, day out. Better clarity would have been good for Raila's political capital, messaging and retention of the goodwill of his supporters. He could barely afford to fritter away his precious time on chasing his tail, when the opposition is already hemorrhaging as a result of the no real war, no real peace state of affairs.

As stressful as Raila's activism is for the new administration, Ruto is muddling through. To Ruto's relief, the current war of attrition between him and Raila is likely to further weaken Raila politically more than it would hurt Ruto, an incumbent with the levers of power. Raila's rejection of Ruto's legitimacy has already become an old story, as it was overtaken by reality. Kenyans and the international community have accepted Ruto's presidency.

Raila's early missteps have helped solidify Ruto's rule. He almost disappeared from the national arena for months. The shock victory was so devastating that it appeared to have beaten the hell out of Raila.

Accepted loss

At one time, many Kenyans assumed that Raila had accepted his loss after the country's Supreme Court rejected the soundness of his petition calling for the annulment of Ruto's victory.

During the lull, Ruto - far from being heady with victory - worked his guts out, seducing opposition members to ward off any potential onslaught from Raila and his allies. He succeeded in eating into the support base of the opposition, persuading its lawmakers to close ranks with his ruling coalition, Kenya Kwanza. When on December 7, Raila reappeared to hold his first public engagement with his supporters, it was a flop of sorts, as he only attracted hundreds of people, far lower than the tens of thousands he used to pull in the past on short notice (six months later, Raila is threatening to return to the same venue, Kamukunji Grounds, for the same reason, public consultations).

Even when the opposition's anti-Ruto strategy picked up momentum months after elections, Azimo's message was incoherent and hardly resonated with the public. It had no wide support even in areas where some of the opposition leaders hail from. Worse still, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the chairman of Azimio, initially steered clear of publicly throwing his support behind his party's agitation at the right time. And when he eventually did, he did it just because Ruto-allied officials had seized control of his Jubilee's leadership.

Azimio MPs walk out of National Assembly Chambers as Treasury CS Njuguna Ndung'u presented the 2023/24 budget. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

"We believe that this election was stolen, was rigged by UDA (United Democratic Alliance), by the IEBC in cahoots with some international interest that I don't want to name (it) here today. We believe that very strongly and we have evidence for that," Azimio spokesperson Prof. Makau Mutua, told Citizen's JKL show.

In a changing world, where African countries are caught in the ideological and economic war between the West and the East, particularly China and Russia, Ruto's ascent has pushed Kenya's foreign policy toward the West, especially toward the European Union and the US, while at the same time chilling ties to China and, to a lesser extent, to the former colonizer, Britain. In a geopolitical viewpoint, the Ruto-Raila contest last August was a competition between their international friends, as each side tried to have its man carry the day. The post-election antagonism still seems to reflect that dynamic.

In realpolitik, though, prolonging the anti-Ruto agitation serves Raila just fine, regardless of whether a foreign country feeling let down by Ruto's win supported him or not. For Raila, the more he is in the national limelight, the more relevant he will be, even if his anti-government crusade come to naught. Keeping his name and cause in the national discourse was sufficient enough to preserve his stature as the country's foremost opposition leader.

Being a persistent nuisance could have an added advantage for Raila in the long run: It can help threaten Ruto's second term chance if a rematch between the two ever takes place.
For example, if Raila persists in his politicking and resists any temptations to strike a political deal, the anti-Ruto agitation would give him a leg up and a hard fight for Ruto in 2027.

In any re-election bid, Ruto is likely to be up against the full force of his predecessor and his team. Uhuru and Co. suspect that they would be harassed - and possibly prosecuted - should Ruto win a second term, which will free him from any political baggage.

Raila's apparent acceptance to call off the bi-weekly demonstrations to give dialogue a chance could have been a strategic-cum-personal tactic to foil the ongoing anti-Raila onslaught by a new crop of politicians in his backyard that is allegedly being egged on by Ruto's party, Kenya Kwanza.

Raila has no desire to lose everything. If he lost the presidency to Ruto, that shouldn't result in a post-Raila era in Luo land or in Kenya at large. He knows that an all-or-nothing strategy could jeopardize any dream to have one last shot at the 2027 presidential race. A Raila who's busy with his own survival is good for Ruto and his 2027 aspiration. It will offer him a breathing space to try to cure the malaise he inherited from his predecessor - and possibly an other opportunity to romp to victory in the next election cycle.