Will UDA survive curse of ruling parties that weaken and wither?

In the polls, the party posted stellar performance capturing a near majority of elective seats in Parliament, governorship and the tightly contested presidency. It also took control of county assemblies in its strongholds.

How UDA, as part of Kenya Kwanza Alliance, managed victory in the presidential election is, however, not unique to the party if the success of other parties formed in the lead-up to previous general elections is anything to go by.

In 2002, the late former President Mwai Kibaki was propelled to power by the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).

Just like UDA, the coalition party was founded months to the polls by, among others, Mr Kibaki, Charity Ngilu, Raila Odinga, Kijana Wamalwa and Kalonzo Musyoka. They coalesced around the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK) and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

Despite being new, Mr Kibaki managed 62 per cent of the votes against independence party KANU's Uhuru Kenyatta who got 31 per cent.

It was, however, not long before the curse of division in a ruling party drove its wedge among its founder members ahead of the 2005 constitutional referendum.

Kibaki's wing of the coalition party which was in support of the referendum lost at the ballot to Raila's faction who joined hands with Uhuru and KANU and led a successful 'No' campaign.

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto dissolved TNA and URP alongside 10 other small parties to form Jubilee. [File, Standard]

In 2017, Jubilee campaigned on the promise to unite Kenyans who had for years witnessed deep political divisions along tribal lines.

Trouble in the party began after President Uhuru built bridges with Raila in March 2018 a move that left Dr Ruto and his allies aggrieved.

Infighting rocked the Jubilee Party as Uhuru's faction and Raila's allies embarked on elbowing out Ruto's allies from executive and legislature positions.

The disgruntled members christened Tanga Tanga were then denied access to Jubilee Party headquarters forcing them to seek alternative space at the momentarily branded Jubilee Asili Centre.

It metamorphosed into Hustler Centre, which became the UDA headquarters along Ngong Road.

Isaac Kahacho, a political analyst, says that UDA's survival as a party beyond one election cycle is dependent on the leadership it will have under Ruto.

Consistent face

"Other parties have failed to survive due to poor leadership and lack of a consistent face like is the case for ODM where Raila has maintained firm grip of the party and its leadership," said Kahacho.

According to him, UDA has high chance of surviving on its own without being dissolved into a coalition party.

"During the campaigns, Ruto was more inclined and categorical towards the success of UDA as a party. The party's survival will, however, hang on the balance once Ruto exits active politics," said Kahacho.

President-elect William Ruto. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multimedia University, says UDA's survival will be pegged on the success of the government its members will form.

"UDA has a strong ideology, unlike other previous ruling parties which were mere political vehicles. If the new government fulfils its promises, it has chances of outliving its founders," said Naituli.

On his part, Dr Philip Chebunet says Ruto's style of politics is likely to see it survive beyond 2027.

"Ruto has cut his political image as a man of his word which is key to the survival of the party. They should stick to their manifesto for the country and not personality cultism. Hopefully, they have learnt from the fall of Jubilee Party," said Chebunet.