Raila Odinga: A presidency so near, yet so far

Former Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga (left) with his son Raila Odinga (right). [File, Standard]

In the early 90s Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia, Masinde Muliro, Gitobu Imanyara, Paul Muite, Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Raila Odinga, Martha Karua, Prof Peter Anyang' Nyong'o among other young Turks burst into the scene pushing for multiparty democracy.

However, like a wave violently crashing the shore, Raila's persona had come to the national stage after he was arrested after the 1982 attempted coup.

Isolated troublemaker

At the time of his arrest and detention, the only details about him were that he was Jaramogi's son. The public lacked the image or voice of a man paraded as an enemy of the people. "When I looked at the Raila I knew in the late 70s and the Raila linked to the coup attempt, I couldn't believe it," says Anangwe.

"Raila was one of the less conspicuous people at the time. When they mentioned him in 1982, he came out as an isolated troublemaker and not someone with a clear cause," says political analyst Barrack Muluka.

By the end of the decade, little was heard about Raila. While he served six years in detention his friction with the government reverberated across the country, especially in Luo Nyanza.

Released in February 1988, Raila was again arrested in September for pro-democracy and human rights campaigns in a period when Kenyans were silenced by the government's iron fist. "We didn't seem to hear much about him after he was released. The focus was still on his father," recalls Dr Muluka.

His brush with the government and the little information that leaked to the public on who he really was were created a sense of mystery around him.

Still, Raila was not making headlines, neither was he the talk in town. At the time, other political players like Dr Willie Mutunga were trying to reshape the system and pushing for political reforms.

Raila would flee to Norway after, he writes, learning of a plot to assassinate him. It was just four months after he was released from his third and last detention from 1990 to 1991.

Multi-party in Kenya

A year before his return, Section 2 (a) of the constitution had been repealed making Kenya a multiparty state by law. The Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) was the first opposition party, headed by his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

Moi and Raila cooperation

But the former prime minister was serious and his next moves proved that he would do anything to rise above the ranks and get to the top office in government. In 2000, two years ahead of the general elections, Raila's NDP started cooperating with Kanu, a move that saw three NDP MPs join President Moi's cabinet thus inaugurating the first coalition cabinet in the country's history.

"His quest for power has no limits. He wants more of it and he will circumvent constraints to the realisation of the same. When he joined Kanu, his agenda was the same as he is doing it with Uhuru now; to get close to the power so that he can be facilitated to be president," says Prof Anangwe.

In his stint in Kanu, Raila's eyes were fixed on succeeding President Moi and as the party's Secretary-General, his gamble on joining Kanu failed to pay off after the former president chose Uhuru Kenyatta (then a businessman) to succeed him as the party leader and Kanu's presidential flag bearer in the 2002 general elections.

The ODM leader would leave Kanu with a host of influential politicians such as Kalonzo Musyoka, Najib Balala, Moody Awori and the late Prof George Saitoti. They would go to form the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which would team up with the Mwai Kibaki-led National Alliance Party to form the National Rainbow Coalition which brought down Kanu's 40-year-old rule.

Government of national unity

In the Kibaki government, Raila would secure a cabinet seat as Minister for Roads. He would later lead a rebellion against the Narc government after President Kibaki failed to honour an MoU that called for a new constitution within 100 days of his government.

This form of partnership and walkout would underscore the coming years of Raila's quest for power as he agreed to take the position of Prime Minister following the violence that followed the 2007 elections and led to a coalition government.

Prof Anangwe offers another glimpse of an enigma of a man who always carries something under his sleeves. "Raila has a split personality. There is the quiet one where he lies low and non-controversial when he is powerless, but he is a different person when he has power. At that time, he is very aggressive, very intolerant, uncompromising and he would use other people to climb but towards the end, he ascribes the power to himself," says Prof Anangwe.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. [David Njaaga, Standard]

His successive strategies have seen him bringing together powerful coalitions: Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) in 2013 and National Super Alliance (NASA) in 2017 with the help of his long-time allies; Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Amani National Congress leader (ANC) Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya Leader Moses Wetangula.

However, power struggles within NASA would dent the Union finally leading to a falling out in 2021 where Mudavadi and Wetangula moved to team up with Raila's top competitor Deputy President William Ruto ahead of the 2022 general elections.

Kalonzo says Raila betrayed him

Kalonzo accused Raila of betraying him by failing to honour an MoU between him and the ODM chief that would have seen Raila support Kalonzo for the presidency in 2022.

In 2018, Raila came together with his political nemesis President Uhuru in an event that left many of his closest allies bamboozled when he shook hands with President Uhuru Kenyatta on May 9, 2018, in a rapprochement that has come to be known as the "handshake".

"Right now, you are seeing he is very malleable, he is saying he is going to follow Uhuru's footsteps. Don't buy it. Wait until he gets power, that's when Uhuru will know who Raila is," argues Anangwe.

One thing is for sure - Raila Odinga will keep on popping up surprises.

Even after four decades on the political scene, what cannot be argued is that Raila is a political titan and when you think you have decoded the man, he lives up to his name; Agwambo.