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Lake Nakuru might double from its initial size by 2031 as a result of rising water levels, projections in a new report have shown.
The new report by a multi-agency technical team constituted to assess the impacts of rising water levels of Lake Nakuru has warned that the lake might increase to cover 82 square kilometres in 2030 from the initial 43 square kilometres in 2010.
The report findings further showed the lake is expected to experience a seven-metre rise as a result of the extraordinary rise in water levels it has been experiencing since 2010.
"Climate change is a critical factor and the projections are that these changes will continue. Long-term projections show that the lake levels will continue to rise," said Jackson Raini, the task force coordinator.
The report, which traces the increasing levels to 2010 when the lake first burst its banks indicates the lake increased its flood area from a low area of 3,268.71 ha in January 2010 to a high of 5,400.27 ha in October 2020, an increase of 2,131.56 ha.
However, the task force team now projects a worst-case scenario where the levels are further expected to expand to cover 82 square kilometres, a move they say will require the establishment of lake beacons for monitoring.
"The key thing is to beacon riparian areas and factor in the extent to which this water can flood in a worst-case scenario, with the view to involving government agencies for these areas to be used for conservation in future," Nakuru County Environment chief officer Kiogora Murithi said.
Already, the rising water levels in Lake Nakuru have submerged about 26.6 square kilometres of the park area and affected 677 families in Barut, Parkview and Mwariki areas.
It has also affected the riparian ecosystem, displacing wildlife, part of the road network, staff houses, office blocks, electric fences and campsites within the park while increasing cases of human-wildlife conflicts.
"Part of the Jinja-Suswa powerline from Uganda was submerged and also had to be powered off," said Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) Senior Scientist Joseph Edebe.
The rising lake levels have also resulted in a significant change in the water chemistry as the lake's salinity has declined to exhibit signs of a freshwater lake.
"Results of the January 2021 waterfowl population estimates and species diversity is highest in Lake Nakuru compared with lakes Baringo, Bogoria and Elementeita," the report shows.
Recent waterfowl population estimates within Lake Nakuru indicate increased numbers of water birds associated with freshwater systems. These include Greater cormorants and African fish Eagles.
So far KWS has spent approximately Sh50 million to rehabilitate park infrastructure damaged by the rising water levels of Lake Nakuru, and Sh105 million to rehabilitate the 20km stretch of road damaged by floods in the last three years.
The task force linked the changes to deforestation and poor farming practices which have led to siltation. It reveals that between 1970 and 2021, more than 600 square kilometres of forest and land under natural vegetation in the catchment basin of Lake Nakuru has been cleared for cultivation and settlement.
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The area under natural forest cover within the Lake Nakuru basin has reduced from 47 percent in 1970, 26 percent in 1986, 10 percent in the year 2000, 9 percent in 2010 and 8 per cent in 2021.