Why 'miracle' is needed for Jaguar, Waruguru, Nyamu to be in next Parliament

Laikipia Woman Representative Catherine Waruguru. [File, Standard]

It would require a "miracle" for Charles Kanyi, alias Jaguar, Catherine Waruguru, Karen Nyamu and Peris Tobiko to make it to the next Parliament.

On Wednesday, July 27, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) published the lists of all political party nominees to the 13th Parliament, which takes office after the August 9, 2022 General Election.

Jaguar, Waruguru, Karen Nyamu and Peris Tobiko have all been listed as potential nominees in a list submitted by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Jaguar lost the bid to defend his Starehe parliamentary seat under UDA ticket. The certificate went to East African Legislative assembly (EALA) MP Simon Mbugua.

UDA settled on Mbugua, citing a popularity survey that placed the EALA lawmaker ahead of Jaguar.

Laikipia Woman Representative Catherine Waruguru lost her UDA Laikipia East MP bid to Amin Deddy in the party primaries. Deddy got 12,743 votes against Waruguru's 7,148 in the April 14 nomination exercise.

Peris Tobiko lost her bid to become next Kajiado governor after Katoo Ole Metito secured the UDA ticket in April 14 party primaries. Tobiko got 26,002 votes against Metito's 72,629.

Karen Nyamu, on the other hand, had to shelve her senatorial ambition after UDA, in early April, settled on Bishop Margaret Wanjiru to run for the Nairobi Senate seat.

The four nomination losers have since been listed in UDA's roll of nominees submitted to the IEBC.

In the nomination list, the order of placement matters a lot. A potential nominee placed at Number One stands a higher chance of securing nomination than others on the list.

Section 36 (7) of the Elections Act says: "The IEBC shall draw from the list the number of special seat members in the order given by the party, necessary to ensure that no more than two-thirds of the membership of the assembly are of the same gender."

The only way the others featuring on the list can make it to Parliament, is if the sponsor party gets a high number of members in the National Assembly or the Senate.

Article 90 (2) (a) of the Constitution says "each political party participating in a general election nominates and submits a list of all the persons who would stand elected if the party were to be entitled to all the seats" in Parliament.

In the National Assembly, the maximum number of nomination slots available are 12.

Article 97(1) (c) of the Constitution says the "twelve members [shall be] nominated by parliamentary political parties according to their proportion of members of the National Assembly in accordance with Article 90, to represent special interests including the youth, persons with disabilities and workers".

In the Senate, the maximum number of nominees are 20; sixteen of them are women, two of them represent the youth and the remaining two represent persons with disabilities, says Article 98 (1) (b, c and d) of the Constitution.

Formula

In the National Assembly, there are 337 elected Members of Parliament - 290 elected at constituency level and 47 voted in as Woman Representatives.

The maximum 12 available positions will be shared out among the parties represented in Parliament based on the number of MPs that they have.

For instance, if UDA has 100 MPs in Parliament, then you take that number (100) and divide it by the total number of elected MPs (337), then multiply it by 12 (the maximum number of nomination slots).

In the above scenario, the answer is 3.5, meaning UDA will get four (4) out of the 12 nomination slots.

The IEBC, thereafter, would go to the UDA's National Assembly nomination list and pick the people listed as Number One, Two, Three and Four. It's the four who will be sworn in as UDA-nominated MPs.

Because the order of placement plays an important role, Jaguar and Catherine Waruguru would have stood a better chance of securing nomination seats in the next Parliament had they been placed in top numbers in the nomination list.

The 12 UDA potential nominees to the National Assembly, based on the order of priority - from Number One to Twelve - are: Jackson Kosgei (1), Teresia Mwangi (2), Abdisirat Ali (3), Dorothy Ikiara (4), Joseph Iraya (5), Jackline Lukalo (6), Jonas Kuko (7), Catherine Waruguru (8), Charles Kanyi (9), Jane Putunoi (10), Fredrick Muteti (11) and Christabel Amunga (12).

What the above means is that, in an ideal situation, UDA has to secure nine (9) out of the possible 12 slots for both Waruguru and Jaguar to make it to the next Parliament. Remember, they are picked on order of priority.

Mathematically, for UDA to get the nine slots, it would mean that the party gets a total of 240 elected MPs, including the Woman Representatives, in the August 9, 2022 polls.

When you take 240 and divide it by 337, and multiply the result by 12, it gives you 8.5. That means that the available slots for that party in nominations would be nine out of the maximum 12.

However, Jaguar and Waruguru could still feature if UDA gets a large majority in the National Assembly, even if it's not the 240 slots arrived at in the calculation.

However, considering the strength of Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya-affiliated parties, if the recent opinion polls are anything to go by, it would require a "miracle" for UDA to have an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Senate

In the Senate, there are 47 elected Senators, representing all the 47 counties.

The maximum number of nominated senators (for all parties represented in the House) are 20 - sixteen (16) women, two (2) youth and two (2) persons with disabilities.

The "formula" for getting party nomination representation in the Senate is similar to that of the National Assembly.

You take the total number of senators from a single party, divide it by 47, and multiply the figure by 16 (for women nominees), and two (2) each for (the youth and persons with disabilities).

Just like in the National Assembly, the order of placement in the nomination list matters, as that is what the IEBC will use to pick the position-holders.

In the list submitted by UDA for Senate nomination, Karen Nyamu and Peris Tobiko are at Number Six (6) and Seven (7) respectively.

The list has the following in a descending order: Veronica Nduati-Maina (1), Roselinda Soipan (2), Miraj Abdulrahman (3), Joyce Korir (4), Gloria Magoma (5), Karen Nyamu (6), Peris Tobiko (7), Maureen Mutinda (8), Esther Anyieni (9), Aurelia Chepkirui (10), Consolata Nabwire (11), Raphaela Adukan (12), Christine Mwanyule (13), Genevieve Achieng Wasonga (14), Leila Nuru (15) and Jamhuri Warda Guyo (16).

For both Karen Nyamu and Peris Tobiko to make it to the Senate as Nominated Senators, the UDA will have to get at least 20 elected senator seats, or a large majority.

That is, 20 divided by 47 and then multiplied by 16 (available women seats). That gives 6.8, meaning the party would qualify for seven nominated senator seats in an ideal situation.

For UDA to get at least one of the two youth representative slots in the Senate, the party must be one of the two most-popular parties in the House, meaning it must have the highest or second-highest number of elected senators.

That also applies to the two positions of nominated senator representing people living with disabilities.

UDA has nominated Raphael Mwinzagu (1) and Shukria Haji (2) as its youth representatives in the Senate.

Unlike the UDA, party loyalists in ODM and Jubilee were given priority slots in the nomination list.

For instance, Murang'a Woman Rep Sabina Chege was the top nominee in Jubilee's National Assembly list, while Margaret Kamar, President Kenyatta's sister Kristina Pratt and Nairobi Governor Ann Kananu took up the Top Three slots in the Senate.

ODM, on the other hand, prioritised Suba South MP John Mbadi in the National Assembly list, while the party's National Elections Board chairperson Catherine Mumma took the top slot in the Senate.

Death or incapacitation

In case of death or incapacitation of a Nominated Member of Parliament or the Senate, the IEBC would refer to the list submitted by the sponsoring party, and based on the list order, would pick the person at the cut-off point.

For instance, if UDA-nominated representatives are eight in the National Assembly, and one dies in office or is incapacitated, then the person who was placed ninth in the nomination list would assume the position, based on the priority order.