How 2022 contest in the Mountain is similar to that of 2002 election

Then-National Rainbow Coalition leaders Kalonzo Musyoka, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, George Saitoti, Moody Awori and Simeon Nyachae at Uhuru Park in 2002. [File, Standard]

The August 9 electoral contest in Mt Kenya region has striking similarities to the 2002 election.

In that election two decades ago, the choice was between candidates aligned to the formation seen as the national movement – Narc – and one aligned with what was perceived to be Rift Valley-allied party, Kanu.

Narc, the short form of National Rainbow Coalition, was a nationwide movement that brought together a conglomerate of opposition parties under umbrella of National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) and a splinter from then ruling party, Kanu, known as the Rainbow Alliance, which later converged under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

On the other hand, Kanu was a shell of its old self after mass exodus of the Rainbow splinter which left it largely a party of the North Rift region.

Kibaki was the presidential candidate for NARC and Uhuru Kenyatta the Kanu candidate.

Though coming from Mt Kenya region, Uhuru’s key promoter was Kanu party leader and then outgoing President Daniel arap Moi. His chief campaigner was William Ruto, then Cabinet minister and Kanu organising secretary.

Uhuru’s chief strategist was Geoffrey Gachagua (now Rigathi Gachagua), who was his personal assistant. (It is at that time I had my only and ever engagement with Uhuru Kenyatta courtesy of Geoffery Gachagua).

Kibaki’s chief campaigner was Raila Odinga, who had made the famous “Kibaki Tosha” declaration at Uhuru Park.

Kibaki’s lead campaigner in Mt Kenya region was Martha Karua.

Which way Mountain?

So the dilemma in the Mountain was whether to vote for the national movement, Narc’s candidate Kibaki, or the Rift Valley-allied Kanu candidate Uhuru. Kibaki carried the day. (See the attached table)

Kibaki harvested 701, 916 or 67.9% of the 1 033 456 votes cast in Mt Kenya region, as Uhuru walked away with 308, 012 or 29.8% of the vote.

Uhuru swept Kiambu vote where all MPs except Kikuyu’s Paul Muite, were voted on Kanu tickets. Kibaki paid him in same coin by sweeping clean the entire Nyeri vote.  Narc white-washed Kanu in the rest of Mt Kenya districts (there were no counties then) – Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru, and Tharaka-Nithi. Kanu also saw dust in Mt Kenya Diaspora in Laikipia, Nakuru, Nairobi and Kajiado.

Overall, Kibaki won the presidency with 3, 647, 658 votes or 62.2 % of the total cast as Uhuru conceded defeat with 1, 836, 055 votes or 31.3 % of the total.

 Hot potato

Surprise of surprises, the moment Kibaki was declared winner and NARC formed government, Mt Kenya MPs voted on Kanu ticket dropped Uhuru as if he was a hot potato and switched loyalty to Kibaki, even while remaining in Kanu. The very first to abandon Kanu was Kiambaa’s Njenga Karume. I remember attending his wife’s burial at the family’s Cianda Farm where President Kibaki came and Karume regretted to have abandoned him and Narc. But he declared he too “have now seen light and chosen to align with the rest of Kenya.”

Indeed, not long after and though a Kanu MP, President Kibaki appointed Karume the Cabinet minister in the crucial docket of Defence! 

Eventually, even Uhuru jumped ship and was warmly welcomed by President Kibaki.

In Kibaki’s 2007 re-election bid, Uhuru and Karua were his chief campaigners.

I was at KICC presidential tallying centre when Karua caused a fuss and Uhuru and Amos Kimunya quickly walked in as “reinforcemet forces”. The squad on opposite side was led by Ruto and Miguna Miguna. That is a story for another day.

Repeat history

 This year’s election has echoes of 2002 in several ways. Azimio is seen as the national movement in the mode of Narc, having brought together 26 affiliate political parties, including the ruling party Jubilee and the lead opposition party, ODM.

On the other hand, Kenya Kwanza is seen to be the political vehicle of the Rift Valley in mode of Kanu in 2002. Ruto, the UDA leader, was Kanu presidential candidate chief campaigner in 2002. His running mate, Gachagua, was Uhuru’s chief strategist, Personal Assistant and Mr Fix-it in 2002.

On the other hand, Raila, the Narc presidential candidate lead campaigner in 2002, is now presidential candidate for Azimio. His running-mate, Karua, was one of Kibaki/Narc’s key campaigners in Mt Kenya region in 2002 election.

Prediction

My prediction – and after watching the Tuesday running-mates debate between Karua and Rigathi – the presidential vote will be roughly 50/50 between the two competitors.

Given that Azimio is the national movement in the mould of Narc, a 50 per cent vote from Mt Kenya region will be more than enough to propel its presidential candidate to a commanding lead at the first round.

On the other hand, while Kenya Kwanza’s 50 per cent vote from Mt Kenya will give it great satisfaction having scavenged for it, through UDA, in the last four years, it won’t give it victory. Why? Azimio will have suffocated it by sweeping what was Narc’s 2002 vote in the rest of the country.

Rented not bought

Before they re-mended fences, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru (she has done all political summersaults), had cautioned URP party leader that Mt Kenya politicians while they can be rented or hired, they cannot be bought for keeps!

My prediction is that the moment Azimio presidential candidate and his formation are declared winners, those in Mt Kenya elected on UDA ticket – whether MCAs, MPs, Women Reps, Senators or Governors – will immediately switch loyalties the way those elected on Ksnu ticket in 2002 did when Narc won.

Postscript: Listening to Hon. Rigathi Gachagua on Tuesday’s running mates media debate, one got impression he had something personal with the outing President and his family. He made 75 references to them – either as President, First Family and this and that. He even had carried handwritten notes to make his case, and hinted he will want them jailed in the event Kenya Kwanza wins this election.

Haiya!: Talk of personal grudges played on a national arena. Would it not be easier that Hon. Gachagua seeks audience with his former boss and not drag the rest of us into their private/personal matters or grudges! End of the story.