Scramble for Rift Valley's 5.4 million votes picks up as Uhuru enters fray

President Uhuru Kenyatta addresses wananchi during a working tour of Samburu County that involved the unveiling of several development projects.

Azimio la Umoja One-Kenya Coalition party’s bid to penetrate the Rift Valley, the perceived political stronghold of Deputy President William Ruto, is one of, if not the most, significant development ahead of the August 9 General Election.

With just 22 days to the election, the battle for its 5.4 million votes is promising to be a bruising one due to the fluid and erratic voting pattern of diverse ethnic communities in the expansive region. 

Dr Ruto appears to be pulling out all the stops to ring-fence the region from his main challenger in the presidential race, Raila Odinga, the Azimio candidate who is determined to have a huge bite of the pie.

First, Raila’s strategy to use experienced, older, and long-time ardent supporters to campaign for him in the region has opened up the six counties of Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet, which are predominantly occupied by the Kalenjin community and have a total of 2.2 million votes.

Narok, Kajiado, Samburu, Nakuru, and West Pokot are seen as key battlegrounds for the two protagonists.

Narok County has 398,000 registered voters, Kajiado (463,000), Nakuru (1, 054, 856), Samburu (100,014) and West Pokot (180,232).

The total number of voters in the region constitutes close to 24 per cent of the entire voter register in the country.

The total number of votes in the six counties constitutes close to 40 per cent of the total number of votes in the region, with the other eight counties having 3.2 million votes, which account for 60 per cent of total votes.

Ruto’s allies are confident that their support bases in the region will yield a higher voter turn out to enable them to scoop a lion’s share of the votes against their main competitor.

Raila’s team is, on the other hand counting on three factors to boost their tally.

First, the Azimio candidate is hoping to benefit President Uhuru Kenyatta’s share of supporters in the region, which it argues was fed up with Mr Ruto’s leadership.

Second, internal woes in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), particularly the post-nomination fallout and the bad blood between Ruto and Uhuru.

Uhuru has decided to come out of State House and roll up his sleeve to campaign for Raila.

With less than a month before he leaves office, Uhuru is scheduled to tour the Rift Valley next week to try and rally the region behind his preferred successor.

Insiders say Uhuru will commission some of the development projects in the region, as he explains to the voters why some of the projects they initiated in the first term are yet to be completed.

“The president will start his tour in Nakuru City where he is expected to commission some development projects done by both the county and the national government, as he campaigns for Raila,” said one of the local Jubilee leaders who did not wish to be named because he does not have authority to speak on behalf of the president.

Third, the rising insecurity in the Kerio Valley belt and the government’s mishandling of it.

These developments portend two challenges to the deputy president, who has gone all out to ensure that he succeeds his boss-friend- turned foe -in the upcoming polls.

First, the vote swing; latest opinion polls are indicating a swing in the four battlegrounds - and the ground is still shifting.

A poll conducted recently by TIFA Research shows that Raila is leading with about 42 per cent compared to Ruto’s 39 per cent in results released on July 4.

Second is the turnout effect; the fact that Ruto appears be losing clout across the country, going by the opinion polls, suggests that voter turnout will fall.

‘Sponsored’ opinion polls

However, the DP has dismissed the opinion polls, saying they were sponsored by his opponents to show that they are ahead.

Analysts say voter turnout and voter conversion will be the two elements in the August 9 contest.

“This will determine the election outcome. Both Ruto and Raila aim to get the highest turnout possible in their strongholds to lock out their opponent, to gain more ground in the battlegrounds, and to penetrate the opponent’s strongholds,” observes Philip Chebunet, a political commentator from the region.

Mr Chebunet adds that the two candidates may also try to suppress voter turnouts in opponent zones using legitimate and illegitimate methods.

The region has over the past electoral cycle remained a key battleground for presidential candidates due to its huge voting bloc scattered across its 14 counties in the region.

The six counties of Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet which are predominantly occupied by the Kalenjin community to which Mr Ruto belongs have a total of 2.2 million votes.

Analysts say the main battle between Ruto and Raila will be in Nakuru, Kajiado, Trans Nzoia, Narok, Samburu and Turkana counties which have a combined 2,646,379 million votes.

Laikipia and West Pokot counties have been leaning towards Ruto though Raila has been fighting to gain a foothold in the areas same as in Uasin Gishu county which has a large portion of immigrant communities.

Ruto is expected to hold rallies in West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu and Nandi counties on Monday July 25, in what is likely to be a call for a massive turnout during the August 9 elections.

“Some of our people in the villages might be confident that we are going to win the elections so easily and may decide not to vote. We want all including our expectant women to turn up to vote,” Ruto recently told supporters in Trans Nzoia.

In Uasin Gishu, Nandi and Elgeyo Marakwet, Ruto has assembled firebrand politicians such Governor Jackson Mandago, Senator Kipichumba Murkomen, Governor Stephen Sang and Deputy Governor Wisley Rotich in a bid to consolidate his home turf.

The Azimio brigade led by Governor Alex Tolgos, leaders from Nandi led by Agriculture minister Dr Sally Kosgei and regional coordinators recently launched an all-out vote-hunt for Raila in the North Rift region.

In West Pokot, Governor John Lonyangapuo formed the Kenya Union Party (KUP) and joined the Raila-led Azimio coalition earlier this year.

“This time, we are leaving nothing to chance. Our mobilisation will be house to house because every vote must count in this election,” Mr Mandago said.

Whereas Nakuru, Laikipia, Kajiado, Narok and Trans Nzoia are highly cosmopolitan, they have huge blocs of certain dominant ethnic groups. 

In the South Rift region, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui are spearheading the Azimio campaigns.

The Kikuyu community is dominant in both Nakuru and Laikipia counties while the Maasai are the majority in Kajiado and Narok counties with the Luhya community being the dominant group in Trans Nzoia county.

The Turkana, Samburu and Pokot are the most dominant ethnic groups in their respective counties.

In the 2017 election, a total of 3,635,871 registered voters cast their ballots in the region out of the total of 4,650,024.

The voter turnout in the region stood at 78 per cent, which was slightly above the national average of 77 per cent.

The UhuRuto duo garnered 2,755,102 votes representing close to 75 per cent of the total votes cast while Raila who contested under the Nasa coalition obtained 880,769 votes which accounted for 24 per cent.

 Political analyst Gitile Naituli says whereas this indicates that Ruto will take all measures to safeguard the six Kalenjin dominated counties, he will also be focusing on securing a large portion of votes from the other eight counties in the region which holds the bulk of the votes.

Recent opinion polls by Infotrak and Tifa indicates that Nakuru which previously voted jointly with the other counties in the Mt Kenya region has over the past few months evolved as a battleground for the two presidential contenders.

 Both Raila and Ruto have held series of campaign meetings in the regions in a bid to consolidate their ground.

 As the presidential race enters the home stretch it is apparent that daggers have been drawn and tough battle is shaping up in the region as the two candidates scramble for the votes.

Raila’s allies are confident that they will secure half of the total votes in the region while Ruto’s allies maintain that the region is theirs to lose.

Meaningful change

Their running mates, Ms Martha Karua and Mr Rigathi Gachagua has similarly traversed the region drumming up support for the tickets.

Mr Kipkorir Menjo, who coordinates Azimio activities under Tolgos and Dr Kosgei said they have concluded town hall meetings across the counties and are now reaching out to supporters.

Tolgos and Dr Kosgei have met community leaders allied to Raila and Azimio in the region urging them to back leaders who would deliver meaningful change and transform the economy.

Dr Kosgei also received a group of officials who defected from ANC and joined Azimion during an event in Eldoret.

 “The ANC officials are now with us and will be our grass root disciples and messengers who will reach out to more voters and trust that Azimio team will triumph in the polls,” stated Kosgei.

“Our networking is now effective and people are yearning for change. The same leaders giving promises failed voters in 2013 and 2017. We are advocating for change under Raila and Martha Karua,” stated Menjo.

In West Pokot, the supremacy battle between Azimio and Kenya Kwanza has intensified with both coalitions wooing voters with only 23 days to the polling day. Simon Kachapin who is seeking re-election as governor on a UDA ticket after losing to Lonyangapuo in 2017 expresses confidence Ruto will triumph with 100 per cent support.

“Our County has been marginalized for long but we have confidence that the Bottom up economic model under Dr Ruto will address the situation,” stated Kachapin.

Kacheliba MP Mark Lomunokol said the county is a UDA zone and that KUP have nothing to offer to Azimio presidential candidate.

Kachapin, Sigor MP Peter Lochakapong, Lomunokol, Kapenguria’s Samuel Moroto and West Pokot Woman Rep Lilian Tomitom have been campaigning for Dr Ruto.

Lonyangapuo, Senator Samuel Poghisio, Speaker Catherine Mukenyang and Pokot South MP David Pkosing are rooting for Azimio.

UDA brigade in the region have also employed a strategy to counter strong independent candidates in North Rift.

Recently, Didmas Barasa (Kimilili), Ben Washiali (Mumias), Gladys Boss Sholei (Uasin Gishu) and a host of MCA aspirants made several campaigns stops to consolidate UDA support.

The Kenya Kwanza Alliance leaders targeted Moiben, Nandi Hills and Emgwen constituencies where UDA nominees are facing tough tests to beat their rivals vying as independent candidates.

In Kesses, UDA candidate Julius Ruto is running against Swarup Mishra, an independent.

They also urged residents to rally behind Nandi Hills UDA candidate Bernard Kitur and Joses Lelmengit for Emgwen, who are running against Alfred Keter and Dr Tecla Tum respectively.

In Trans Nzoia, Fork Kenya, an affiliate party to Kenya Kwanza, which has in the past enjoyed unweaving support in the area, is facing a stiff competition from Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K).

It is a political competition between Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula and Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, who are pro-Ruto and pro-Raila respectively.

Different groups of elders and opinion leaders and professionals from the Kikuyu community supporting Raila’s presidential bid have intensified efforts to lobby community members in the grassroots level in their effort to galvanise for votes.

Those standing for various elective seats under the Azimio formation have also been traversing the regions mobilising voters.

Similarly, the Maa Council of Elders and other community leaders have been mobilising the Maasai community to vote for Raila while another section of the community leaders have been rooting for Ruto.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Ruto, Titus Too, Osinde Obare and Irissheel Shanzu)