Ministry explains its Covid-19 models as cases near 7,000

The government sought to explain how it came up with models guiding its projections of Covid-19 cases in Kenya with the numbers expected to surpass 7,000 today.

This came as 268 new cases were reported yesterday, raising the tally so far to 6,941.

Health Chief Administrative Secretary Rashid Aman said the new numbers call for reflection of our attitudes towards the containment measures no matter how harsh they are.

“The measures in place to curb the virus cannot be halted. As we have witnessed, countries that have not adhered to the preventive measures or relaxed them too soon have been flooded with new cases,” Dr Aman said.

He said 259 of the new cases are Kenyans nationals. Nairobi had the bulk of the cases at 175, followed by Mombasa 28, Busia 18 and Kiambu 11. Kajiado and Migori had nine cases each. Uasin Gishu eight, Machakos six and Narok two. Murang’a and Makueni had a case each.

Health Director-General Patrick Amoth said the 6,941 cases confirm the projections issued earlier on how prevalent the disease will be as we near August and September.

During the early days of the pandemic, the peak was projected to be around April when the country would record about 10,000 cases by early June.

Dr Amoth noted the models used then were not locally generated. “Initially, we were basing our projection on data and trends in other countries such as Britain and China. However, we now have enough information to make our projections.”

He said that is why numbers that have been issued lately do not have a lot of variations.