Why border standoff may cause food crisis

Tanzania yesterday barricaded Kenyan truck drivers from entering its borders, triggering a standoff between the two largest economies in the region.

One unintended consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic has been the falling-out of East African Community (EAC) countries, which now risks degenerating into a major diplomatic and economic crisis.

The latest frosty relations were triggered by Kenya’s decision last week to close its border with Tanzania after surveillance showed many foreigners, especially truck drivers, with the coronavirus disease were entering the country.

In response, Tanzania yesterday barricaded Kenyan truck drivers from entering its borders, triggering a standoff between the two largest economies in the region.

Kenya’s food banks, which are replenished by imported foodstuff from Uganda and Tanzania, are likely to run dry as Kampala and Dar es Salaam implement stringent containment measures that could disrupt the flow of cargo within the region.

Local manufacturers, who are already reeling from the Covid-19 shock, are also likely to see their market shrink further.

For Kenya and Tanzania, the trade war is a zero-sum game. Kenya stands to lose Sh33.8 billion worth of export earnings should the flow of cargo to Tanzania be curtailed. Tanzania, on the other hand, exported goods worth Sh27.7 billion to Kenya last year.

In total, Kenya earned Sh140.4 billion from the commodities it exported to the five EAC member states, which also include South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi. In turn, the country imported goods valued at Sh67 billion, mostly foodstuff, from its neighbours.

For Uganda and Tanzania, the erection of barriers between their borders and Kenya’s will see them go without packaged medicines, soap, biscuits, sweets, plastic lids, cleaning products, cement and palm oil, among others.

Unless Kenya miraculously ups its food production, the trade war could morph into a food crisis. Kenya imports close to a third of its food mostly from Tanzania and Uganda. But with the border closed and truck drivers being subjected to overzealous testing, supply of key foodstuff might be disrupted.

From Tanzania, Kenya imports mostly dried vegetables. Other major imports include maize, onions, vegetable residuals and uncoated kraft paper that is used for packing and wrapping.

From Uganda, Kenya gets dried legumes (peas, beans), milk, maize, animal food, concentrated milk, raw tobacco and tea.

Already, Kenya’s silos are running dry — a situation that has seen the country declare its intention to import maize from overseas. The grain is a critical ingredient in the preparation of ugali, which is a staple dish in most households.

Ordinarily, Kenya, which does not produce as much maize as it consumes, turns to the two countries for duty-free maize to plug the deficit.

“However, import of maize from Uganda is out of the question this time round as they, too, have limited supply,” said Timothy Njagi, a research fellow at Tegemeo Institute, a think-tank.

He added: “Tanzania, even if they have maize, are not very keen on selling to us.”

In 2017, the Tanzanian government decreed that no maize should leave its borders as it tried to stockpile some for its citizens.

President Uhuru Kenyatta has been careful not to disrupt the flow of cargo into and out of Kenya. But, according to Mr Njagi, restricting the movement of people can also have a contagion effect on the flow of goods within the region.

Tanzania’s health ministry issued a checklist for vehicles carrying goods and services, whose effect would be to delay cargo delivery. Crew members may be quarantined at the point of entry, with truck owners expected to provide back-up crew to ensure that goods are delivered to the intended destination.

In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni is convinced that Kenyan truck drivers have thwarted his plan to contain spread of the coronavirus disease in his country.