Hope as virus cases below projections

But for the measures to have the desired effect, top scientists have advised current restrictions remain in place at least to the end of June, if not longer.

Kenya enters the second month of the Covid-19 crisis with guarded optimism that containment measures are slowing down the disease.

“The measures we have taken are firm and indeed have been impactful. But we are not out of the woods yet,” said President Uhuru Kenyatta last Thursday.

But for the measures to have the desired effect, top scientists have advised current restrictions remain in place at least to the end of June, if not longer.

Even then, scientists at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri), University of Warwick and Oxford University, both of UK, warn the disease could still rebound if restrictions are relaxed early, in which case they want the government to be ready to reintroduce the bans.

“We can overcome, if we work together,” said Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe on Saturday when he announced Kenya has so far confirmed 262 cases. This is way far below local and international expert projections for Kenya.

In March, Director General of Health Patrick Amoth said they had projected 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 cases by the first week, midway and at the end of April respectively.

“Control measures are going on with extremely good results. We had projected about 5,000 cases at this time and we only have about 200 cases,” said Education Cabinet Secretary George Magoha during a Covid-19 briefing on April 14.

Similar estimates have also been made by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, indicating Kenya would reach 1,000 cases by mid-April and 10,000 cases by the end of April or early May.

Due to the low number of cases against projections, there is evident optimism among Kenyans on social media, with some already suggesting easing of restrictions such as inter-county travel and burials.

But last week, local and UK scientists warned against the early lifting of restrictions on social distancing and movement.

“Exceptional social distancing measures can slow transmission, flattening the epidemic curve, but the risk of epidemic rebound after lifting restrictions is predicted to be high,” they said in a new study.

The study titled Forecasting the scale of the Covid-19 epidemic in Kenya, says these measures should be maintained for a minimum of 90 days since the first evidence of community transmission.

The team had investigated the effect of implementing social distancing and limiting movement for 90 days followed by a relaxation. If social distancing and limiting movement are well implemented, the scientists say Covid-19 epidemic can be controlled in Kenya.

“But if the epidemic is left unchecked, we predict that the impact in Kenya could be severe, with a high probability of observing more than 750,000 infections,” they warn.