Raila in dilemma over how to handle CORD’s 2017 presidential nomination

It’s high noon again in Kenya. That’s because engines are already being revved up for the 2017 presidential contest. We know which bull will come out of the Jubilee stable. TNA boss Uhuru Kenyatta — alias Kamwana — has a firm grip on that flag. His numero dos, the irrepressible URP chief William Ruto, had better play ball. But methinks Mr Ruto might have a trick up his sleeve for the scion of the Burning Spear.

Even so, the fireworks will come from CORD, not the ruling party. As he has been for over two decades, CORD’s supreme commander Raila Odinga remains the opposition’s centre of gravity. Can either Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka or Senate Minority Leader Moses Wetang’ula dethrone Agwambo?

Let me dispense with the easy scenario first — and fast. That’s because you don’t linger in the aisle with the cheap wines if you’ve a fine palate. In CORD’s s trio, Mr Wetang’ula wears like an ill-fitting jacket. I know the man from Sirisia has struggled mightily to cultivate a presidential mien. Methinks he’s the only one who doesn’t know he lacks the chops of a true alpha dog. Frankly, it’s a testament to the poverty of Kenyan politics that Mr Wetang’ula has come thus far.

His meteor should burn out before the final gun is sounded. That’s why I rule him out as a minnow incapable of dueling with Jaramogi’s progeny for CORD’s ticket. Wishes aren’t horses.

This brings me to Tseikuru’s famous son, the indomitable Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. Many have often predicted his political death only to be shocked by his resilience. It’s an unarguable fact that Mr Musyoka cost Mr Odinga the 2007 elections.

He split ODM and opened the path for PNU leader Mwai Kibaki to snatch the election. He then betrayed Mr Odinga again — by buttressing Mr Kibaki’s untenable claim to victory as PNU’s Vice President. His detractors still call him “Judas.” But I am not one of them. I’ve learnt to respect Mr Musyoka’s formidable political skills. He’s a vastly underrated strategist. But I won’t exaggerate my view of him. Let me state it flatly — he isn’t the chosen one. I know Mr Musyoka is smarting from the loss — contested — that he and Mr Odinga suffered at the hands of the Kenyatta-Ruto duo in 2013. He’s spoiling for a rematch — this time with him at the top of the ticket. His argument against Mr Odinga is simple: He backed Mr Odinga who was taken to the cleaners by Jubilee. He’ll say it’s only fair that Mr Odinga return the favour. But presidential tickets aren’t matters of sentiment.

Nothing is freely given — you get nothing for nothing except nothing. Mr Musyoka will have to wrestle Mr Odinga to the ground if he wants to be CORD’s numero uno. That could only happen with Mr Ruto’s help.

Let me elaborate. Let’s assume Mr Ruto beats The Hague rap. That’s a big “if”. Mr Ruto would return as a conquering hero. Mr Ruto’s URP acolytes believe that TNA has abandoned him at The Hague after Mr Kenyatta’s case was withdrawn.

His Rift Valley mandarins further believe he’s been marginalised within Jubilee. Whatever pretence there was of co-principals — which was hogwash anyway — has evaporated. That’s why Mr Ruto is easy pickings for the opposition. Mr Kalonzo could lure Mr Ruto into CORD and gang up with him to convince Mr Odinga to surrender the baton. Remember this — in Kenyan politics, there aren’t permanent enemies. The three men have worked together before, and could do so again.

My crystal ball assumes a pugilistic contest between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka. But perhaps that’s wrong. There’s one scenario that doesn’t call for deployment of Machiavelli. Mr Odinga is without doubt the doyen of opposition politics. He’s the most progressive active politician among his peers.

He has toiled in the vineyards the longest. One has to wonder what he thinks about his role going forward. Does Mr Odinga still want to be king, or can he be content being the kingmaker? We know he’s unrequited — I can’t think of any other Kenyan who’s worked harder — and deserves more — to be at State House than Mr Odinga. Perhaps he’s also doing it for Jaramogi, the father of the Left.

It’s unlikely that Mr Odinga would choose to anoint Mr Musyoka if he opted not to contest for power. He must be itching to floor Mr Kenyatta — and pay him in the same coin. This would satisfy a long running family feud between the Kenyattas and the Odingas.

But Mr Odinga may decide to square off with Mr Kenyatta by proxy. To live up to his legacy, Mr Odinga is likely to make a clean break with the tainted past. That’s why Mr Musyoka wouldn’t be his choice.