Why perception matters in our politics

The man who views the world at fifty, the same as he did at twenty, has wasted thirty years of his life.

-Muhammed Ali

Perception is the oil on which the wheels of Kenya's politics run. It is forceful and influences how we see our politicians and how we relate.

Perception at times takes a different trajectory from the truth. But whereas truth may be the casualty of perception, at times, it is an offshoot of it - though sometimes, they could be at odd ends. Now let us come to the point about perceptions that are forming as we feel the 2017 election gears get engaged slowly.

Raila Odinga and his team shifted the gear stick yesterday when they launched the Okoa Kenya referendum initiative. It is debatable how much it will achieve, but again we must go back in time to the 2003-2005 period when Mr Odinga and his new friend Kalonzo Musyoka were fighting President Mwai Kibaki over some MoU.

You see, the stage for the Kibaki-Raila showdown in 2007 was set by the political contests that culminated in the 2005 constitutional referendum where Kibaki was whipped. He reciprocated the humiliation by firing those in Government led by Mr Odinga.

The issues of tribalism, corruption and inertia formed the pillars of the Opposition's campaign, leading to the melting point in 2007. Now, curiously, again history is replaying itself and the same script has come up. Of course, the Odinga-Musyoka-Moses Wetang'ula axis will have to confront the divisive issue of who among them should be the flag-bearer.

The stickiest point is the claim that Mr Odinga will be too old to contest. He has fought too many times and a new front-runner needs to emerge, and that his shelf-life is over.

These are the circumstances the Opposition is in right now, barring other changes like the emergence of a third force to battle it out with the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy President William Ruto.

The Opposition is thumping its chest whilst holding a time-bomb that may implode before the duel. I don't see Mr Ruto running for President in 2017. He has said he is waiting for 2022 and your opinion aside, we ought to respect his level of trust (and that of Kalenjins) in the boss and the generosity of history and time, even if you think this is akin to accepting a cheque of Sh20 billion post-dated to January 2022.

Over in Jubilee there are perceptions taking place, and maybe truths, that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto may do well to address now.

The first one is the two are still trying to gain experience in management of public affairs and it does not help that their Cabinet is full of people with good-sounding CVs but whose experience is only limited either to the world of research and academia, or small boardrooms.

Secondly, that either corruption likes some of the people close to the President, or they themselves like corruption. Wherever a disclosure of corruption is made without clarity on who is behind it, curiously, the conclusion even on social media sites seems to be unanimous that it must be 'yule mjamaa tu!' (it must be that one and only that one!)

It must be unsettling to Uhuru because clearly this is the baggage he shall carry to the Finish Line and a part of him will be dented as well.

The other perception is that of militarising our politics and ethnicising the security docket. Wait a minute, Joseph Nkaissery and Joseph Boinett are today's stars, but a little bird whispered to me that the jig-saw puzzle would soon fall in place, especially after Julius Karangi settles in his upcoming office called Homeland Security.

The military in fact will go through more changes in the next two years. Sit back and watch the ethnic constellation taking shape at DoD. The other perception Mr Kenyatta would have to contend with, and which could have let itself out in the entry of Eugene Wamalwa to the Cabinet, is that there is a small unresolved matter between him and Mr Ruto, and so the need for a populous tribe as a spare wheel in case of emergency.

There is a claim the Kalenjin tyre is either too expensive to keep or has lost its tread depth. The other is the complication brought about by the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance; it has been bandied by Uhuru-Ruto team as the ticket to State House till 2022 and beyond. This may be the chest-thumping that will unite other Kenyan against Jubilee.

Finally, there is the perception that Jubilee's 'digitalness' only ends with the word, its view of the world is just through the lens of the defunct YK'92 prism. That is why the liberating clauses in the Constitution promulgated in 2010 are being demonised, say as the reason terrorists are hitting at us. Nay, even with their more robust democracy, the US and UK have been hit.

Yes Mr President, this is the perception; that you and your deputy have another side slowly unfolding itself.