Hope alive as Somalia heads to the ballot

By Juma Kwayera

After two decades of bloodbath, Somalia is this week expected to elect a new Government to take over from the interim Transitional Federal Government in what the rest of the world hopes will end lawlessness in the Horn of Africa nation.

In the countdown to the vote, there is also cautious optimism that the election will usher in a new era, what with the bickering that involves the four leading candidates. Of major concern is whether the incumbent, President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh will accept the outcome if he loses.

Sheikh Sharif is a former warlord who belonged to the Islamic Courts Union and whose conduct is keenly being followed inside and outside Somalia.

Thus as the curtains come down on the tenure of TFG tomorrow, uncertainty looms over whether the election, the first to be held on Somali territory since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, will proceed with regard to the stabilisation of the Somalia roadmap.

At least 20 candidates have expressed interest in the seat, but only four have the mettle and clan support to go all the way.
Candidates to be vetted

Mohamed Ali Nur, Somalia’s ambassador to Kenya, says unlike the election of former President Abdullahi Yusuf, a technical team has been formed to vet the candidates. One of the criteria presidential candidates must fulfil is “one should not have been a warlord”.

“There is a technical committee that will vet MPs. Anybody who committed crime will not be allowed to participate, and must have at least high school education,” says Mr Nur.

So far, President Sheikh, Speaker of the National Assembly Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, and former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghedi have emerged as the strongest contenders for president. The process began with convening of a constituency assembly that endorsed a new constitution.

The transition to a new national Government culminates in the election of the president tomorrow, which began with the clans nominating representatives to a constituency conference, which deliberated and approved a new constitution. This was the first peace process to be undertaken on Somali territory. President Sheikh Sharif was elected in exile in Djibouti, while predecessor Abdullahi Yusuf was elected in Nairobi.

Nur is of the opinion that the transition to a new regime reflects the aspirations of most Somalis.

“Somalis are sick and tired of war. People from the Diaspora are coming to invest the country as a result of the optimism created by impending election. This is the first time the election is taking place in Somalia. The other critical thing is that most warlords have been disarmed, which adds to the optimism building up in Somalia,” says the ambassador.

Vote for new president
The first major task for the MPs was to elect Speaker and two deputies of Parliament, after which they are expected to vote for a new president.

The election is structured in such a manner that it will go through several rounds until the list is whittled down to two. The preliminary round involves voting for all the presidential candidates to reduce the number to five. In the second round, the number will be reduced to two, who will face off in the final round.

Dr Mohammed Ali, an expert on conflict in Eastern Africa fears anti-climax in war that looked winnable in the past one year. This derives from the perceptions that the incumbency factor is expected to tilt power balance in favour of President Sheikh Sharif.

“There is going to be a major battle as clan battle for supremacy. Al Shaabab will likely harvest from the falling out. Given the circumstances of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, it going to be tough for Sheikh Sharif to win,” argues Ali.

Zenawi, said to be seriously ill, has not been seen in public for more than three months, fuelling speculation about his whereabouts.

In the current power structure, President Sheikh Sharif has tended to look to Uganda, Ethiopia and Burundi for support, while Prime Minister Abdiweli and Speaker Hassan Sharif Aden enjoys a rapport with Kenya.

Proportionate representation
The two belong to different clans. According to a formula worked out during the Somalia peace talks at Nairobi in 2005, it was agreed that representation be proportionate to numerical strength of clans. Four clans hold the key to Somalia’s stability – the Darod, Hawiiye, Digil and Merifle. The rest are minorities – the Harti, Ogden and Marhanm, but still important, especially in the run-off vote.

Speaking at an open forum organised in Nairobi, Deputy Representative African Union Chairperson in Somalia Wafula Wamunyinyi expressed optimism the war-torn state was on course to reversing the two decades of war and humanitarian crisis. He, however, warns the entrenchment of peace democracy in Somalia requires the international community to go beyond neutralising Al Shaabab in Somalia.

In an earlier interview with The Standard On Sunday, Wamunyinyi said the freeing of the Somalia from the clutches of Al Shaabab is presenting fresh challenges the incoming regime will have to contend with – crime.

“As the situation continues to improve in Somalia, we face a fresh security challenge. African Union has embarked on training the police and standing army that to takeover from Amisom once the Kismayu is liberated. We expect that the stabilisation of Somalia will create room for economic revival,” he said.

In the new political structure, Somalia will have a Lower House consisting of 275 members and an Upper House with 54 senators. Of necessity, 30 per cent of the composition of the bicameral Government must be women.