Experts: Ethnic rivalries over counties threaten peaceful polls

By ALLY JAMAH

Transition to county governments is the biggest risk to a peaceful March 2013 polls, according to experts gathered in Nairobi to discuss the first General Election under the new Constitution.

Speaking on Tuesday during a conference to assess risks to stability ahead of polls, the experts said possibilities of ethnic conflagration are high in some counties, as rival ethnic groups or clans prepare to  “take charge”.

“In multi-ethnic counties, tensions are already high.  Sentiments of political and economic marginalisation are publicly expressed in Isiolo, Wajir, Migori, Mombasa, Nakuru, and Trans Nzoia counties,” said Shadrack Gutto, a Kenyan scholar from the University of South Africa.

Perceived rivals

They cited Marsabit and Mandera where conflict has already broken out as different clans form alliances to “lock out” perceived rivals in control of power and resources. They called for a comprehensive plan to mitigate conflicts flashpoints to work out possible power and resource-sharing formulas.

Regarding national politics, scholars expressed concern many politicians have not learnt the lessons of 2007 post-election violence since they base their politics on whipping up ethnic emotions and dividing the country into ethnic voting blocs.

“Politicians repeat in rallies that no blood will be shed again. But in practice, their brand of politics still raises tensions since it is based on personalities rather than issues,” said President of the Africa Policy Institute Peter kagwanja.

They also cited resurgent criminal gangs and terrorism as a real risk to peaceful elections, saying old militias are being transformed or re-branded and new ones formed ahead of polls.

Prof Kagwanja said robust political competition does not have to degenerate into national tension if they are civil and issue-based.

Accept outcome

“We need to place the country first as opposed to individuals. Whoever wins or loses is still a Kenyan and we should all be ready to accept the outcome of the election if it done freely and fairly,” he said.

The Political Counsellor at the British High Commission, Michael Nevin, said the UK is optimistic about the upcoming election given institutional reforms in government, which are steadily restoring public confidence in electoral and governance systems.