Turbulence at ODM as internal wrangles intensify

By Oscar Obonyo

Even as Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Orange party gears up for healing later in the month, a section of party members have come out to poke at old wounds.

In the captivating paradox, the MPs, from South and North Rift regions, want their party leaders held responsible for the eruption of post-election violence following the 2007 disputed presidential election.

The ping-pong between the MPs and members of the Pentagon reflects the mudslinging duel that has characterised the ODM for over two years. The trend has opened the party to a series of internal woes leading to its waning popularity.

The largest party in the Tenth Parliament, which romped to victory with an outright parliamentary majority, is today fractious and cannot comfortably push through its agenda in the House.

Commenting on the party’s apparent poor showing in by-elections, Fisheries minister, Amason Jeffa Kingi, partly attributes poll loses to overconfidence.

“The whole thing boils down to our approach to parliamentary by-elections. Owing to overconfidence – because we remain the most popular political party – our approach has been casual as we have not put the best foot forward,” says the minister.

But Amukowa Anangwe, who served as the head of the party campaign secretariat in 2007, thinks otherwise.

“The party has not made an effective transition from an election machine that it was in 2007 to a sustainable institution for aggregating and articulating the demands of its political constituency,” says Prof Anangwe.

The former Cabinet minister says part of ODM’s problem is that it is still overshadowed by its political leader, Raila.

“When he is busy the party suffers because it solely depends on his initiative and drive,” says Anangwe, who teaches political science at University of Dodoma, Tanzania.

Political bug

Anangwe argues that the efforts must be made to make the party and PM separate entities.

ODM may indeed be suffering the kind of lethal political bug that visited the then powerful Ford-Kenya 16 years ago. Same as ODM, which is full of vibrant youthful leaders and has a wider regional spread than any other political party, Ford-Kenya was the only party with an MP in every Province in the Seventh Parliament.

“However, unlike Ford-Kenya that was hit by massive defections with its leading lights retreating to tribal political outfits, ODM’s challenge is singular. Possible defection is anticipated only from the (Higher Education Minister, William) Ruto faction,” explains Adams Oloo, a political science lecturer at the University of Nairobi.

Maintaining all is well within the party, Kingi says ODM is a victim of its own popularity, as it is being judged on a higher pedestal.

According to all recent opinion polls, ODM remains the most popular party and party leader, Raila, the favourite presidential candidate for 2012.

Nambale MP, Chris Okemo, says ODM’s undoing is lack of consultation as well as a trait of arrogance exhibited by some party leaders.

“There is a small clique of people who believe they must drive the party and make all the relevant major decisions. In Parliament, for instance, there is absolutely no consultation or direction as to how we should vote or contribute to Motions,” says Mr Okemo.

The former Finance minister, a political rival of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, claims some senior party leaders undermine MPs by rewarding their political opponents with parastatal jobs or party positions.

“This is not just happening to me but to many MPs. The folly of this plot is that it is the MPs, who come handy in helping the party during crucial debate and voting in Parliament, and not personal cronies out there who failed to make it to Parliament,” Okemo says.

Empty talk

But Kingi says those critical of the party have opted to engage in gallery antics and empty talk instead of strengthening the party. This group, he offers, will most certainly not show up for the upcoming retreat.

“We are elected leaders and not pupils, who are directed by a head teacher not to leave classroom for whatever reason. Those claiming ODM leaders dictate events of the party are the very ones who have failed to make meaningful contribution to the party,” says the minister.

In the meantime, Dr Oloo says all is not lost for the Orange party: “You need to weigh ODM’s strength in light of what is happening to its key rival. The situation is not as bad as in PNU where politicians have no incumbent to cling to.”

Although conceding that Ruto offered a political lesson to his party during the referendum, Oloo observes the voting trend could change.

“He may have succeeded in swaying many in the Rift Valley to vote his way, but this could change. Many in that region thought everybody in Kenya was voting ‘No’. It will not be easy for some to risk isolation again by following him,” says Oloo.

Are there any realistic chances, though, of Raila and Ruto making up politically ahead of 2012?

“I think it is rather too late as the divisions are rather too wide. And with (ICC Prosecutor Louis-Moreno) Ocampo closing-in on suspects of post-election violence, the bad blood between the two can only get worse,” warns Okemo.