Raila and Ruto in close contest with 3pc margin, says opinion poll

The August 9 General Election promises a close presidential contest, with only three per cent difference between the two main contenders, according to the latest opinion poll.

According to the poll by Trends and Insights Africa (Tifa), if elections were held today, Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga would garner 42 per cent of the 22.1 million votes, while his Kenya Kwanza rival William Ruto would manage 39 per cent.

To avoid a run-off election, the two competitors have the task of wooing the 10 per cent undecided voters to their sides in the three remaining weeks. In the months of May and June, Raila’s support rose from 39 per cent to 42 per cent, edging out Ruto who had an 11 per cent lead in February.

According to the poll with a +/-2.7% margin of error, the number of undecided voters has plummeted from 20 per cent in February to 10 per cent in May, a sign that the dynamics on who will win the elections are likely to change as the country inches closers to the elections.

The survey further reveals that strongholds weigh heavily on one’s preference for a candidate given that the two leading presidential contenders draw the most support from their ‘native’ regions.

“Ruto in Central Rift (63 per cent) and Raila in Nyanza (68 per cent). Ruto’s second most popular zone is Northern Kenya with Mt Kenya close behind (55 per cent and 53 per cent, respectively), while Raila’s second most popular zone is Nairobi (58 per cent),” reads the report.

Azimio attracts slightly more national support than Kenya Kwanza (42 per cent versus 35 per cent), with Ruto’s alliance dominating in Central Rift and Mt Kenya, while Azimio is more popular everywhere else except Northern and Western regions where the margins between the two front runners are modest.

Interestingly, both candidates have gained more support in areas that are considered their competitor’s stronghold.

“The fact that neither achieves two-thirds support in any of the nine zones helps to explain why their campaign efforts continue to crisscross/overlap each other, sometimes almost on a daily basis,” reads the report.

Ruto has registered increased support in Mt Kenya since mid-May while Raila, despite having Martha Karua as his running mate, has registered no increased gains but maintained a 24 per cent support in the region.

According to the poll, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has established itself as the most popular party, with its support margins growing from 29 per cent in May to 33 per cent in June. Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) comes second with a 29 per cent popularity index followed by Jubilee at four per cent and Roots Party taking fourth place at three per cent.

George Wajackoyah’s Roots Party is more popular than Ford-K, DAP-K and Amani National Congress (ANC).

The survey found out that in the last two years some of the most dramatic shifts was the drop of Jubilee’s popularity from 40 per cent to four per cent while UDA shot from nothing to 33 per cent.

Interestingly, the less known Roots Party has also attracted people who previously supported Jubilee as well as ODM and even a few from UDA.

More males (47 per cent) support the Raila-Karua ticket compared to Ruto (40 per cent) while the UDA leader has 38 per cent of the women support, one point ahead of Raila (37 per cent).According to the survey, the Azimio presidential candidate has what they call ‘male advantage’, owing to a 10 per cent gender margin compared to Ruto’s two per cent.

The findings reveal that Raila’s selection of Karua as his running mate has had no significant boost on his support among women, with data showing the current ‘gender gap’ of 10 per cent has remained constant since April.

However, the Azimio presidential candidate’s support among women has grown by two per cent between May and June. Despite choosing a male running mate, Ruto’s support by women has increased by six per cent between Mid-May and June.

The survey establishes that the slight increase in women’s support may be a result of the decrease in undecided voters and those who declined to name a preferred candidate.

The survey also found out that Raila’s supporters placed more importance on the choice of a running mate compared to Ruto’s, with 80 per cent of the former’s supporters saying they are very satisfied with the choice of Karua while 62 per cent of the DP’s supporters expressing the same sentiment over Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua’s selection.

In past elections where the ODM leader attracted more supporters from the poorer voters compared to his competitors like former President Mwai Kibaki, he now lags behind Ruto in the same demographic.

For persons earning between Sh5,000 and Sh20,000 the UDA presidential candidate has 34 per cent support while Raila has 33 per cent.

With controversy rocking the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on election preparedness and use of manual versus digital voter registers in all polling stations, the survey found that 60 per cent of voters were “very confident” that the electoral agency will deliver fair and honest elections. Seventeen per cent were not confident.

However, there are more Ruto supporters (65 per cent) who have confidence in the electoral body compared to 59 per cent of Raila’s supporters.

Recently Karua cast doubts on IEBC’s ability to conduct credible elections.

jisrael@standardmedia.co.ke